沙田 · 2022-06-19 · 16:38
第 8場
2022-06-19沙田第8場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、J Size訓練的TUCHEL勝出，贏出2-1/4。ROCKPAPERSCISSORS獲得亞軍；WIDE BLUE YONDER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TUCHEL 後段發力 1.22.06 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 1.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | ROCKPAPERSCISSORS 後段發力 CP/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 9 | 8.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | WIDE BLUE YONDER 後段發力 CP B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 13 | 6.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | PRIDE OF EIGHT 後段發力 XB L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 8 | 38.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | AMAZING VICTORY 後段發力 H K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 11 | 8.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | TRUST ME B-/H C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 4 | 49.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | LOVE ME MORE 後段發力 CP K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 7 | 9.4 | 9-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | ANGELS HUNTER B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 148.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | EMBARKED B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 5 | 89.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | DIVINE ERA TT K H Chan · K H Ting | K H Chan | K H Ting | 12 | 62.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | PRIDE OF DRAGON 後段發力 H Bentley · C W Chang | H Bentley | C W Chang | 14 | 121.0 | 22-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT SR/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 38.0 | 23-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | NOWITZKI TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 1 | 173.0 | 26 |
| 14 | 14 | HANDSOME GUYS 早段領放 B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 10 | 122.0 | 27 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TUCHEL | 43.4% | 2.30 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | ROCKPAPERSCISSORS | 15.0% | 6.66 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | AMAZING VICTORY | 14.0% | 7.13 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | WIDE BLUE YONDER | 9.5% | 10.57 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | LOVE ME MORE | 4.3% | 23.21 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | TRUST ME | 2.8% | 35.20 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT | 2.2% | 45.53 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | EMBARKED | 2.0% | 49.53 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | DIVINE ERA | 2.0% | 51.25 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | ANGELS HUNTER | 1.6% | 63.19 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | PRIDE OF EIGHT | 1.2% | 80.71 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | PRIDE OF DRAGON | 1.1% | 92.65 | 11 |
| 13 | 14 | HANDSOME GUYS | 0.4% | 234.68 | 14 |
| 14 | 4 | NOWITZKI | 0.4% | 248.70 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 17
PLACE
1 10.5
3 19
8 23
QUINELLA
1,8 74
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 25
1,8 31
3,8 70.5
FORECAST
1,8 99
TIERCE
1,8,3 310
TRIO
1,3,8 117
FIRST 4
1,2,3,8 481
QUARTET
1,8,3,2 4,181
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A3 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
3/1 31
3/8 24.5