跑馬地 · 2022-11-09 · 20:16
第 4場
2022-11-09跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由S De Sousa策騎、K L Man訓練的ISLAND SURPRISE勝出，贏出3/4。RATTAN KINGDOM獲得亞軍；HAPPY SOUL獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門RATTAN KINGDOM跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT 1.09.99 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 2 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | RATTAN KINGDOM B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 11 | 3.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 10 | 31.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | CHARMING STEED TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | DURHAM STAR B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 6.8 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 1 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | RIVER VIEWS B1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | SUCCESS FIGHTER B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 4 | 7.1 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH P- V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 28.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | DAZZLING FELLOW TT L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 6 | 72.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | BIRDSVILLE SR/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 12 | 39.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | GENEROUS FRIEND R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 7 | 120.0 | 8 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUCCESS FIGHTER | 18.4% | 5.43 | 8 |
| 2 | 9 | RATTAN KINGDOM | 18.0% | 5.57 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 15.7% | 6.38 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | RIVER VIEWS | 11.3% | 8.82 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | DURHAM STAR | 8.7% | 11.55 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | HAPPY SOUL | 5.2% | 19.10 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | DAZZLING FELLOW | 4.9% | 20.52 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | CHARMING STEED | 4.5% | 22.38 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH | 4.5% | 22.40 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | BIRDSVILLE | 4.1% | 24.58 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | WOOD ON FIRE | 4.0% | 24.73 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | GENEROUS FRIEND | 0.8% | 124.55 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 34.5
PLACE
8 64.5
9 15
12 14.5
QUINELLA
9,12 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 168.5
8,12 170.5
9,12 32.5
FORECAST
12,9 159
TIERCE
12,9,8 2,160
TRIO
8,9,12 477
FIRST 4
3,8,9,12 1,981
QUARTET
12,9,8,3 25,505
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 19
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/9 85
6/12 435