Happy Valley · 2022-11-09 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ISLAND SURPRISE, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with RATTAN KINGDOM second and HAPPY SOUL third. The 3.3 favourite RATTAN KINGDOM finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT 1.09.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 2 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | RATTAN KINGDOM B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 11 | 3.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 10 | 31.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | CHARMING STEED TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | DURHAM STAR B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 6.8 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 1 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | RIVER VIEWS B1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | SUCCESS FIGHTER B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 4 | 7.1 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH P- V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 5 | 28.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | DAZZLING FELLOW TT L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 6 | 72.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | BIRDSVILLE SR/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 12 | 39.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | GENEROUS FRIEND R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 7 | 120.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUCCESS FIGHTER | 18.4% | 5.43 | 8 |
| 2 | 9 | RATTAN KINGDOM | 18.0% | 5.57 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 15.7% | 6.38 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | RIVER VIEWS | 11.3% | 8.82 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | DURHAM STAR | 8.7% | 11.55 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | HAPPY SOUL | 5.2% | 19.10 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | DAZZLING FELLOW | 4.9% | 20.52 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | CHARMING STEED | 4.5% | 22.38 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH | 4.5% | 22.40 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | BIRDSVILLE | 4.1% | 24.58 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | WOOD ON FIRE | 4.0% | 24.73 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | GENEROUS FRIEND | 0.8% | 124.55 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 34.5
PLACE
8 64.5
9 15
12 14.5
QUINELLA
9,12 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 168.5
8,12 170.5
9,12 32.5
FORECAST
12,9 159
TIERCE
12,9,8 2,160
TRIO
8,9,12 477
FIRST 4
3,8,9,12 1,981
QUARTET
12,9,8,3 25,505
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 19
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/9 85
6/12 435