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Happy Valley · 2022-11-09 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-09 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER COMMANDER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with SIXTH GENERATION second and YELLOWFIN third. The 2.3 favourite YELLOWFIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.56.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SUPER COMMANDER V/TT 0.56.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng 12 21.0 3/4
2 10 SIXTH GENERATION TT1 C Wong · J Richards 8 21.0 3/4
3 6 YELLOWFIN TT1 K C Leung · K W Lui 1 2.3 2-3/4
4 9 DIVINE ERA TT H N Wong · K H Ting 10 61.0 3-1/2
5 8 HAPPY TRIO SR-/H/V1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 21.0 4
6 5 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK M Chadwick · W Y So 6 19.0 4-3/4
7 3 SEE U AGAIN B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 6.9 6
8 2 BRILLIANT LIFE A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 48.0 6-3/4
9 7 MULTIMORE TT C L Chau · T P Yung 4 9.6 8-3/4
10 11 VIVA MAMA CP/TT V Borges · R Gibson 2 23.0 9
11 12 BRILLIANT EIGHT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 11 129.0 9-3/4
12 1 AWESOME TREASURE H-/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 3.9 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER COMMANDER2. SIXTH GENERATION+0.75L3. YELLOWFIN+2.75L4. DIVINE ERA+3.5L5. HAPPY TRIO+4L6. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK+4.75L7. SEE U AGAIN+6L8. BRILLIANT LIFE+6.75L9. MULTIMORE+8.75L10. VIVA MAMA+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SEE U AGAIN (19.7%) finished 7th — the winner SUPER COMMANDER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SEE U AGAIN 19.7% 5.07 7
2 6 YELLOWFIN 17.6% 5.69 3
3 1 AWESOME TREASURE 16.0% 6.27 12
4 5 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 8.3% 12.05 6
5 10 SIXTH GENERATION 7.0% 14.33 2
6 7 MULTIMORE 6.7% 14.89 9
7 4 SUPER COMMANDER 6.5% 15.46 1
8 11 VIVA MAMA 6.4% 15.66 10
9 8 HAPPY TRIO 6.3% 15.92 5
10 2 BRILLIANT LIFE 2.3% 42.74 8
11 9 DIVINE ERA 2.2% 45.09 4
12 12 BRILLIANT EIGHT 1.1% 94.75 11
SEE U AGAINYELLOWFINAWESOME TREASUREGOODLUCK GOODLUCKSIXTH GENERATIONMULTIMORESUPER COMMANDER — wonVIVA MAMAHAPPY TRIOBRILLIANT LIFEDIVINE ERABRILLIANT EIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 216.5

PLACE

4 49.5

6 12

10 48.5

QUINELLA

4,10 1,886

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 90

4,10 496

6,10 76

FORECAST

4,10 4,389

TIERCE

4,10,6 15,370

TRIO

4,6,10 885

FIRST 4

4,6,9,10 8,317

QUARTET

4,10,6,9 302,923

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

8,9,12/4,6,10 187,225

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 43.5

4TH DOUBLE

12/4 1,392

12/10 184