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Happy Valley · 2022-11-09 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-09 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HEROIC MASTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/2, with SUPER AXIOM second and SPECIAL M third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HEROIC MASTER TT 0.56.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 3 1.7 1-1/2
2 7 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 29.0 1-1/2
3 1 SPECIAL M PC/TT A Hamelin · J Size 12 28.0 3
4 8 SERGEANT PEPPER K C Leung · Y S Tsui 5 5.8 3-3/4
5 6 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 11.0 3-3/4
5 12 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 17.0 3-3/4
7 9 SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT M F Poon · J Size 2 27.0 4-1/2
8 10 SPONTANEOUS B V Borges · P C Ng 10 31.0 4-1/2
9 2 HARMONY FIRE SR1/TT S De Sousa · D J Whyte 8 9.0 4-3/4
10 4 DRAGON ADMIRAL H1/XB1 A Badel · R Gibson 6 35.0 5-3/4
11 3 CLASSIC POSH L Ferraris · D J Hall 9 37.0 6-1/4
12 11 SUPER EAGLE H M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 45.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HEROIC MASTER2. SUPER AXIOM+1.5L3. SPECIAL M+3L4. SERGEANT PEPPER+3.75L5. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+3.75L5. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+3.75L7. SAVVY DELIGHT+4.5L8. SPONTANEOUS+4.5L9. HARMONY FIRE+4.75L10. DRAGON ADMIRAL+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HEROIC MASTER (39.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HEROIC MASTER 39.2% 2.55 1
2 8 SERGEANT PEPPER 10.5% 9.52 4
3 2 HARMONY FIRE 7.8% 12.77 9
4 12 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 7.5% 13.40 5
5 1 SPECIAL M 5.7% 17.69 3
6 4 DRAGON ADMIRAL 5.3% 18.98 10
7 9 SAVVY DELIGHT 5.1% 19.59 7
8 6 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 5.1% 19.70 5
9 7 SUPER AXIOM 4.6% 21.94 2
10 10 SPONTANEOUS 4.1% 24.30 8
11 3 CLASSIC POSH 3.8% 26.47 11
12 11 SUPER EAGLE 1.4% 69.68 12
HEROIC MASTER — wonSERGEANT PEPPERHARMONY FIREHIGH RISE SOLDIERSPECIAL MDRAGON ADMIRALSAVVY DELIGHTCALIFORNIA DEEPLYSUPER AXIOMSPONTANEOUSCLASSIC POSHSUPER EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 17.5

PLACE

1 58.5

5 11

7 53.5

QUINELLA

5,7 211.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 84.5

1,7 487

5,7 76

FORECAST

5,7 274

TIERCE

5,7,1 3,042

TRIO

1,5,7 1,190

FIRST 4

1,5,7,8 659

QUARTET

5,7,1,8 8,759

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 14.5

A2

7TH DOUBLE

5/5 39.5

5/7 172