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Happy Valley · 2022-11-09 · 21:17

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-09 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. INTREPID WINNER, ridden by H Bentley and trained by A T Millard, won by HD, with ENSURED second and SAVVY KINGMAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite TEMPEST EXPRESS finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.49.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B 1.49.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · A T Millard 10 12.0 HD
2 12 ENSURED Closed strongly S De Sousa · D J Hall 7 4.4 HD
3 2 SAVVY KINGMAN Closed strongly A Badel · F C Lor 8 20.0 N
4 10 LUCKY DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT L Currie · K H Ting 6 14.0 1-3/4
5 1 CHAMPION DRAGON Led early H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 2 7.5 2-1/4
6 11 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly B2 H N Wong · P F Yiu 12 71.0 2-3/4
7 3 ROYAL BOMB V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 5.2 3-3/4
8 4 TEMPEST EXPRESS B/TT Z Purton · J Size 5 3.6 4
9 7 PRAGMATISM R Maia · R Gibson 4 36.0 4
10 8 WORLD FAMOUS B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 11 16.0 5
11 9 BULLETPROOF V V Borges · P F Yiu 3 26.0 6
12 6 KING'S CAPITAL K C Leung · D A Hayes 9 20.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INTREPID WINNER2. ENSURED+0.2L3. SAVVY KINGMAN+0.05L4. LUCKY DIAMOND+1.75L5. CHAMPION DRAGON+2.25L6. ROBOT WARRIOR+2.75L7. ROYAL BOMB+3.75L8. TEMPEST EXPRESS+4L9. PRAGMATISM+4L10. WORLD FAMOUS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TEMPEST EXPRESS (18.9%) finished 8th — the winner INTREPID WINNER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TEMPEST EXPRESS 18.9% 5.30 8
2 3 ROYAL BOMB 12.4% 8.10 7
3 5 INTREPID WINNER 12.0% 8.36 1
4 1 CHAMPION DRAGON 10.9% 9.18 5
5 10 LUCKY DIAMOND 9.8% 10.19 4
6 12 ENSURED 9.2% 10.87 2
7 2 SAVVY KINGMAN 9.1% 11.05 3
8 9 BULLETPROOF 6.7% 14.85 11
9 6 KING'S CAPITAL 4.7% 21.25 12
10 8 WORLD FAMOUS 3.4% 29.49 10
11 11 ROBOT WARRIOR 1.6% 64.25 6
12 7 PRAGMATISM 1.5% 66.95 9
TEMPEST EXPRESSROYAL BOMBINTREPID WINNER — wonCHAMPION DRAGONLUCKY DIAMONDENSUREDSAVVY KINGMANBULLETPROOFKING'S CAPITALWORLD FAMOUSROBOT WARRIORPRAGMATISM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 125

PLACE

2 45

5 34

12 18.5

QUINELLA

5,12 360

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 381.5

2,12 118

5,12 122

FORECAST

5,12 721

TIERCE

5,12,2 11,479

TRIO

2,5,12 1,990

FIRST 4

2,5,10,12 2,046

QUARTET

5,12,2,10 65,272

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 35

5TH DOUBLE

4/5 3,508

4/12 237.5