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Happy Valley · 2022-11-09 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. STAR BRITE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by NOSE, with XPONENTIAL second and SMOKEY BEAR third. The 3.6 favourite SOLAR WINDS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 STAR BRITE CP/TT 1.09.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 11.0 NOSE
2 7 XPONENTIAL B/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 10 16.0 NOSE
3 11 SMOKEY BEAR H-/XB/B1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 53.0 1-3/4
4 5 HERE COMES TED B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 11 38.0 2
5 12 GLOBAL HARMONY CP L Hewitson · D A Hayes 6 10.0 2-1/4
6 9 SOLAR WINDS H/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 3 3.6 2-1/4
7 1 COPARTNER AMBITION CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 6.6 2-3/4
8 6 SKY FOREVER B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 7 37.0 4
9 8 GLUCK RACER XB1/V2/TT Z Purton · J Richards 9 7.2 4-1/4
10 3 DROPS OF GOD B A Badel · J Size 1 7.7 4-1/4
11 2 FIVE ELEMENTS B M Chadwick · F C Lor 2 5.4 6-1/4
12 10 YEABOI R Maia · C H Yip 12 85.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR BRITE2. XPONENTIAL+0.05L3. SMOKEY BEAR+1.75L4. HERE COMES TED+2L5. GLOBAL HARMONY+2.25L6. SOLAR WINDS+2.25L7. COPARTNER AMBITION+2.75L8. SKY FOREVER+4L9. GLUCK RACER+4.25L10. DROPS OF GOD+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FIVE ELEMENTS (22.8%) finished 11th — the winner STAR BRITE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FIVE ELEMENTS 22.8% 4.38 11
2 3 DROPS OF GOD 15.6% 6.41 10
3 9 SOLAR WINDS 10.8% 9.29 6
4 1 COPARTNER AMBITION 10.7% 9.34 7
5 8 GLUCK RACER 8.7% 11.45 9
6 4 STAR BRITE 7.7% 12.93 1
7 7 XPONENTIAL 7.1% 14.11 2
8 12 GLOBAL HARMONY 4.1% 24.47 5
9 5 HERE COMES TED 3.7% 27.12 4
10 6 SKY FOREVER 3.6% 27.55 8
11 11 SMOKEY BEAR 2.8% 36.33 3
12 10 YEABOI 2.4% 41.85 12
FIVE ELEMENTSDROPS OF GODSOLAR WINDSCOPARTNER AMBITIONGLUCK RACERSTAR BRITE — wonXPONENTIALGLOBAL HARMONYHERE COMES TEDSKY FOREVERSMOKEY BEARYEABOI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 112.5

PLACE

4 31

7 36.5

11 121.5

QUINELLA

4,7 683.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 192

4,11 659.5

7,11 900.5

FORECAST

4,7 1,262

TIERCE

4,7,11 47,603

TRIO

4,7,11 7,897

FIRST 4

4,5,7,11 31,141

QUARTET

4,7,11,5 555,018

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 27

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,7/4,7,11 2,767,452

8TH DOUBLE

5/4 303

5/7 56

SIX UP

9,12/4,10/5,12/5,6/5,7/4,7 48,462

12/4/5/5/5/4 3,053,126

1 [K W Lui]

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

5/5/4 977

5/5/7 173