沙田 · 2022-11-12 · 14:01
第 3場
2022-11-12沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由L Hewitson策騎、D J Whyte訓練的DRAGON'S LUCK勝出，贏出2。GOLDEN BULL獲得亞軍；MARVEL DRAGON獲得季軍。3.0倍大熱門GOLDEN BULL跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | DRAGON'S LUCK 1.09.08 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 4.3 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | GOLDEN BULL TT1 Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 3.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | MARVEL DRAGON V-/TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 9 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | MIRACLE VICTORY TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 5 | 4.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | FAST BUCK A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 20.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | VANTASTIC CHOICE R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 4 | 54.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | PRIME MORTAR CP/TT C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 10 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | CHICKEN DANCE B/TT1 K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 11 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 13 | SOARING TOWER B1 V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 8 | 23.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | CALIFORNIA FOREST B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 17.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | GENERAL ACE C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 58.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 2 | 45.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 12 | FLAMING EAGLE PC/TT S De Sousa · P C Ng | S De Sousa | P C Ng | 14 | 65.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | SUNSHINE LEGENDARY CP/XB1 J McNeil · R Gibson | J McNeil | R Gibson | 7 | 103.0 | 9-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | GOLDEN BULL | 25.8% | 3.88 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | FAST BUCK | 8.4% | 11.88 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | MARVEL DRAGON | 8.2% | 12.13 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | CALIFORNIA FOREST | 7.9% | 12.65 | 10 |
| 5 | 7 | GENERAL ACE | 7.5% | 13.34 | 11 |
| 6 | 11 | PRIME MORTAR | 7.4% | 13.51 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | CHICKEN DANCE | 7.0% | 14.28 | 8 |
| 8 | 13 | SOARING TOWER | 5.7% | 17.52 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | DRAGON'S LUCK | 5.1% | 19.68 | 1 |
| 10 | 2 | MIRACLE VICTORY | 4.5% | 22.36 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | FLAMING EAGLE | 4.5% | 22.40 | 13 |
| 12 | 9 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 3.8% | 26.57 | 6 |
| 13 | 4 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER | 3.0% | 32.84 | 12 |
| 14 | 14 | SUNSHINE LEGENDARY | 1.2% | 83.04 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 43.5
PLACE
5 15.5
8 14.5
10 29.5
QUINELLA
5,8 79.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 38
5,10 90
8,10 50.5
FORECAST
5,8 172
TIERCE
5,8,10 1,479
TRIO
5,8,10 244
FIRST 4
2,5,8,10 245
QUARTET
5,8,10,2 6,404
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
6/5 459.5
6/8 15.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 22