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Sha Tin · 2022-11-12 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DRAGON'S LUCK, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2, with GOLDEN BULL second and MARVEL DRAGON third. The 3.0 favourite GOLDEN BULL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 DRAGON'S LUCK 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 4.3 2
2 8 GOLDEN BULL TT1 Z Purton · C S Shum 1 3.0 2
3 10 MARVEL DRAGON V-/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 9 11.0 3-1/2
4 2 MIRACLE VICTORY TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes 5 4.3 3-1/2
5 6 FAST BUCK A Badel · J Size 6 20.0 4-1/4
6 9 VANTASTIC CHOICE R Maia · C H Yip 4 54.0 5-1/4
7 11 PRIME MORTAR CP/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 10 22.0 5-1/4
8 1 CHICKEN DANCE B/TT1 K C Leung · J Richards 11 16.0 5-1/4
9 13 SOARING TOWER B1 V Borges · W Y So 8 23.0 5-3/4
10 3 CALIFORNIA FOREST B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 17.0 6-1/4
11 7 GENERAL ACE C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 58.0 6-3/4
12 4 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER L Currie · C Fownes 2 45.0 7-3/4
13 12 FLAMING EAGLE PC/TT S De Sousa · P C Ng 14 65.0 9-1/4
14 14 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY CP/XB1 J McNeil · R Gibson 7 103.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON'S LUCK2. GOLDEN BULL+2L3. MARVEL DRAGON+3.5L4. MIRACLE VICTORY+3.5L5. FAST BUCK+4.25L6. VANTASTIC CHOICE+5.25L7. PRIME MORTAR+5.25L8. CHICKEN DANCE+5.25L9. SOARING TOWER+5.75L10. CALIFORNIA FOREST+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN BULL (25.8%) finished 2nd — the winner DRAGON'S LUCK was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 GOLDEN BULL 25.8% 3.88 2
2 6 FAST BUCK 8.4% 11.88 5
3 10 MARVEL DRAGON 8.2% 12.13 3
4 3 CALIFORNIA FOREST 7.9% 12.65 10
5 7 GENERAL ACE 7.5% 13.34 11
6 11 PRIME MORTAR 7.4% 13.51 7
7 1 CHICKEN DANCE 7.0% 14.28 8
8 13 SOARING TOWER 5.7% 17.52 9
9 5 DRAGON'S LUCK 5.1% 19.68 1
10 2 MIRACLE VICTORY 4.5% 22.36 4
11 12 FLAMING EAGLE 4.5% 22.40 13
12 9 VANTASTIC CHOICE 3.8% 26.57 6
13 4 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER 3.0% 32.84 12
14 14 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY 1.2% 83.04 14
GOLDEN BULLFAST BUCKMARVEL DRAGONCALIFORNIA FORESTGENERAL ACEPRIME MORTARCHICKEN DANCESOARING TOWERDRAGON'S LUCK — wonMIRACLE VICTORYFLAMING EAGLEVANTASTIC CHOICEYOUNG LIFE FOREVERSUNSHINE LEGENDARY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 43.5

PLACE

5 15.5

8 14.5

10 29.5

QUINELLA

5,8 79.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 38

5,10 90

8,10 50.5

FORECAST

5,8 172

TIERCE

5,8,10 1,479

TRIO

5,8,10 244

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 245

QUARTET

5,8,10,2 6,404

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/5 459.5

6/8 15.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 22