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Sha Tin · 2022-11-12 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPERB CAPITALIST, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 4-1/2, with GLORY BO BO second and MULTISUPER third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SUPERB CAPITALIST TT1 1.08.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 1.4 4-1/2
2 14 GLORY BO BO B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 11 9.3 4-1/2
3 6 MULTISUPER XB1 L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 9.1 5
4 3 BEAU GOSSE CP1 L Ferraris · D J Whyte 4 154.0 9
5 9 SUPER FAST DRAGON L Currie · J Richards 7 20.0 9-1/4
6 8 STRONGEST BOY CP1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 14 88.0 9-1/2
7 2 HAPPY WON V-/B1/TT- Z Purton · F C Lor 6 17.0 10
8 5 DEVIL AND GOLD TT1 R Maia · C H Yip 5 85.0 11
9 1 DASHING TRIUMPH TT H T Mo · L Ho 8 48.0 11-3/4
10 11 JOYFUL CHAMPION CP1/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 10 29.0 14-1/4
11 4 CRAIG'S MASTER C Y Ho · K H Ting 13 169.0 14-1/2
12 12 NOBLE ACE P-/H/B1 A Badel · J Size 12 76.0 14-3/4
13 13 YOUNG SPARKLE S De Sousa · A T Millard 1 11.0 17-1/4
14 7 SEIZE THE DREAM B1 M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 2 127.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB CAPITALIST2. GLORY BO BO+4.5L3. MULTISUPER+5L4. BEAU GOSSE+9L5. SUPER FAST DRAGON+9.25L6. STRONGEST BOY+9.5L7. HAPPY WON+10L8. DEVIL AND GOLD+11L9. DASHING TRIUMPH+11.75L10. JOYFUL CHAMPION+14.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY WON (20.3%) finished 7th — the winner SUPERB CAPITALIST was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HAPPY WON 20.3% 4.93 7
2 13 YOUNG SPARKLE 15.9% 6.28 13
3 10 SUPERB CAPITALIST 11.5% 8.66 1
4 14 GLORY BO BO 6.4% 15.60 2
5 4 CRAIG'S MASTER 6.3% 15.93 11
6 3 BEAU GOSSE 5.7% 17.56 4
7 1 DASHING TRIUMPH 5.3% 18.94 9
8 7 SEIZE THE DREAM 5.1% 19.59 14
9 6 MULTISUPER 4.9% 20.36 3
10 5 DEVIL AND GOLD 4.5% 22.43 8
11 11 JOYFUL CHAMPION 3.7% 26.77 10
12 12 NOBLE ACE 3.7% 27.27 12
13 9 SUPER FAST DRAGON 3.7% 27.32 5
14 8 STRONGEST BOY 3.1% 32.68 6
HAPPY WONYOUNG SPARKLESUPERB CAPITALIST — wonGLORY BO BOCRAIG'S MASTERBEAU GOSSEDASHING TRIUMPHSEIZE THE DREAMMULTISUPERDEVIL AND GOLDJOYFUL CHAMPIONNOBLE ACESUPER FAST DRAGONSTRONGEST BOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 14.5

PLACE

6 20.5

10 11.5

14 21.5

QUINELLA

10,14 53.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 27

6,14 68

10,14 26.5

FORECAST

10,14 105

TIERCE

10,14,6 271

TRIO

6,10,14 76

FIRST 4

3,6,10,14 1,682

QUARTET

10,14,6,3 12,318

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 13