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Sha Tin · 2022-11-12 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-12 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by C W Chang, won by 2, with SUN OF MAKFI second and BOOM ALLIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB 1.38.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · C W Chang 1 2.2 2
2 5 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall 8 5.7 2
3 2 BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 32.0 2-1/4
4 12 LUCK STAR Closed strongly H Bentley · T P Yung 7 11.0 2-1/2
5 10 GREEN LASER Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 14.0 4-3/4
6 4 INFINITE POWER Led early CP Y L Chung · P C Ng 4 28.0 5-1/4
7 8 VIVA A LA H/P/TT C L Chau · L Ho 3 18.0 6-3/4
8 14 LUCKY VICTOR B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 9.9 7-3/4
9 9 COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · R Gibson 9 123.0 8
10 11 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/XB/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 10 20.0 9-1/2
11 13 LUCKY RUBY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 13 38.0 10
12 1 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 5 17.0 12-1/2
13 7 MAXIMIZE HEART B R Maia · C H Yip 6 20.0 13-1/4
14 3 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT K H Chan · K L Man 14 75.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE2. SUN OF MAKFI+2L3. BOOM ALLIANCE+2.25L4. LUCK STAR+2.5L5. GREEN LASER+4.75L6. INFINITE POWER+5.25L7. VIVA A LA+6.75L8. LUCKY VICTOR+7.75L9. COLOURFUL BARON+8L10. LADY FIRST+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUN OF MAKFI (19.9%) finished 2nd — the winner RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SUN OF MAKFI 19.9% 5.04 2
2 6 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 11.8% 8.49 1
3 4 INFINITE POWER 9.4% 10.69 6
4 14 LUCKY VICTOR 9.1% 11.01 8
5 10 GREEN LASER 7.3% 13.78 5
6 12 LUCK STAR 6.9% 14.59 4
7 7 MAXIMIZE HEART 6.0% 16.55 13
8 13 LUCKY RUBY 5.6% 17.98 11
9 8 VIVA A LA 5.4% 18.55 7
10 2 BOOM ALLIANCE 5.3% 18.97 3
11 3 MAGIC SUPREME 4.4% 22.96 14
12 11 LADY FIRST 4.3% 23.03 10
13 1 SKYEY SUPREME 3.5% 28.73 12
14 9 COLOURFUL BARON 1.4% 72.84 9
SUN OF MAKFIRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE — wonINFINITE POWERLUCKY VICTORGREEN LASERLUCK STARMAXIMIZE HEARTLUCKY RUBYVIVA A LABOOM ALLIANCEMAGIC SUPREMELADY FIRSTSKYEY SUPREMECOLOURFUL BARON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 22

PLACE

2 84

5 18

6 12

QUINELLA

5,6 68.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 284.5

2,6 198.5

5,6 30.5

FORECAST

6,5 108

TIERCE

6,5,2 2,265

TRIO

2,5,6 628

FIRST 4

2,5,6,12 1,145

QUARTET

6,5,2,12 16,995

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,10/2,5,6 27,916

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16

A2

3RD DOUBLE

5/5 53.5

5/6 186.5