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Sha Tin · 2022-11-12 · 15:04

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-12 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KA YING SPIRIT, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with PLEASANT ENDEAVOR second and GOLDEN WARSTEED third. The 3.1 favourite WONDERFUL UNICORN finished 14th.

Result

Official · 0.56.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 KA YING SPIRIT B/TT 0.56.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 2 16.0 N
2 8 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 11.0 N
3 6 GOLDEN WARSTEED XB/B1 R Maia · R Gibson 7 140.0 2-1/4
4 2 SPEEDY MOUSE C Y Ho · F C Lor 11 11.0 2-1/4
5 11 SPARKLING KNIGHT A Badel · C H Yip 10 15.0 2-3/4
6 5 FLYING DRAGON Y L Chung · C H Yip 13 4.2 3-3/4
7 1 METRO WARRIOR B K H Chan · D A Hayes 5 8.4 5-1/4
8 10 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT S De Sousa · J Size 4 12.0 6-3/4
9 4 LIKE THAT V M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 33.0 9-1/2
10 9 ARIEL M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 64.0 10-3/4
11 7 JAZZ CLUB B1 L Ferraris · K W Lui 1 72.0 11
12 14 MR MAJESTIC H- L Hewitson · D J Whyte 14 17.0 12-1/4
13 3 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 26.0 15
14 12 WONDERFUL UNICORN TT1 Z Purton · D J Hall 12 3.1 20-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING SPIRIT2. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+0.05L3. GOLDEN WARSTEED+2.25L4. SPEEDY MOUSE+2.25L5. SPARKLING KNIGHT+2.75L6. FLYING DRAGON+3.75L7. METRO WARRIOR+5.25L8. PINS PRINCE+6.75L9. LIKE THAT+9.5L10. ARIEL+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WONDERFUL UNICORN (15.9%) finished 14th — the winner KA YING SPIRIT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 WONDERFUL UNICORN 15.9% 6.28 14
2 5 FLYING DRAGON 14.1% 7.11 6
3 13 KA YING SPIRIT 9.9% 10.10 1
4 2 SPEEDY MOUSE 9.9% 10.11 4
5 10 PINS PRINCE 8.8% 11.35 8
6 1 METRO WARRIOR 8.4% 11.87 7
7 8 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 7.8% 12.83 2
8 4 LIKE THAT 5.5% 18.26 9
9 3 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 5.3% 18.84 13
10 11 SPARKLING KNIGHT 4.8% 21.04 5
11 14 MR MAJESTIC 4.4% 22.78 12
12 9 ARIEL 2.4% 41.86 10
13 7 JAZZ CLUB 1.7% 58.45 11
14 6 GOLDEN WARSTEED 1.2% 86.57 3
WONDERFUL UNICORNFLYING DRAGONKA YING SPIRIT — wonSPEEDY MOUSEPINS PRINCEMETRO WARRIORPLEASANT ENDEAVORLIKE THATEIGHT TRIGRAMSSPARKLING KNIGHTMR MAJESTICARIELJAZZ CLUBGOLDEN WARSTEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 167.5

PLACE

6 291.5

8 34

13 45.5

QUINELLA

8,13 733.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 1,847.5

6,13 2,762

8,13 232

FORECAST

13,8 1,918

TIERCE

13,8,6 110,468

TRIO

6,8,13 24,269

FIRST 4

2,6,8,13 60,321

QUARTET

13,8,6,2 1,456,327

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 21

4TH DOUBLE

6/8 45.5

6/13 634