Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-11-12 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-11-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MARADO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with CASA LEGEND second and SPEED FAY FAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite CASA LEGEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MARADO Closed strongly B 1.21.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 5 4.9 1/2
2 14 CASA LEGEND B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 4 4.7 1/2
3 6 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B- S De Sousa · A T Millard 7 7.0 2
4 2 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · D A Hayes 6 13.0 2-1/4
5 5 PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 13 8.2 3-1/4
6 7 ADEFILL CP-/B1 J McNeil · P F Yiu 1 8.6 3-1/2
7 11 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 21.0 3-3/4
8 13 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · W Y So 11 44.0 4
9 3 FLYING MOJITO XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 2 19.0 5
10 8 VOYAGE STAR V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 12 10.0 5
11 9 AMAZING INNOVATOR Closed strongly XB/TT L Currie · C Fownes 10 62.0 6
12 10 GLORIOUS LOVER R Maia · C H Yip 9 49.0 7
13 12 SUPER HORNET CP-/B2/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 14 32.0 7-3/4
14 1 INDIGENOUS REALM Led early H-/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 16.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MARADO2. CASA LEGEND+0.5L3. SPEED FAY FAY+2L4. STAR CONTACT+2.25L5. PERFECT PEACH+3.25L6. ADEFILL+3.5L7. MASTER OF LUCK+3.75L8. JIANGXI STAMINA+4L9. FLYING MOJITO+5L10. VOYAGE STAR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MARADO (20.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MARADO 20.8% 4.81 1
2 5 PERFECT PEACH 10.5% 9.52 5
3 6 SPEED FAY FAY 10.1% 9.92 3
4 2 STAR CONTACT 8.3% 12.05 4
5 7 ADEFILL 6.7% 15.00 6
6 14 CASA LEGEND 6.4% 15.55 2
7 1 INDIGENOUS REALM 6.3% 15.98 14
8 8 VOYAGE STAR 5.5% 18.27 10
9 12 SUPER HORNET 5.4% 18.51 13
10 11 MASTER OF LUCK 5.3% 18.82 7
11 9 AMAZING INNOVATOR 4.9% 20.34 11
12 13 JIANGXI STAMINA 4.3% 23.20 8
13 3 FLYING MOJITO 3.1% 32.35 9
14 10 GLORIOUS LOVER 2.5% 40.56 12
MARADO — wonPERFECT PEACHSPEED FAY FAYSTAR CONTACTADEFILLCASA LEGENDINDIGENOUS REALMVOYAGE STARSUPER HORNETMASTER OF LUCKAMAZING INNOVATORJIANGXI STAMINAFLYING MOJITOGLORIOUS LOVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 49.5

PLACE

4 17.5

6 27.5

14 18.5

QUINELLA

4,14 88.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 76

4,14 43.5

6,14 67.5

FORECAST

4,14 211

TIERCE

4,14,6 1,281

TRIO

4,6,14 291

FIRST 4

2,4,6,14 578

QUARTET

4,14,6,2 9,753

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 23

A3

5TH DOUBLE

13/4 1,312

13/14 154

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,5,6/6,8,13/Any Combination 624,043