沙田 · 2023-02-12 · 15:39
第 6場
2023-02-12沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K C Leung策騎、F C Lor訓練的RUN RUN BUDDY勝出，贏出1-1/4。SMILING COLLECTOR獲得亞軍；SPEEDSTAR獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。4.4倍大熱門SMILING COLLECTOR跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | RUN RUN BUDDY 一路領先 CP 1.22.54 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 4.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | SMILING COLLECTOR 後段發力 V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 7 | 4.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 13 | SPEEDSTAR B K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 2 | 76.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET 後段發力 H/PC/XB C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 3 | 25.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SPEED FAY FAY B H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 5 | 7.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | BLUE MARLIN 後段發力 H A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 9 | 43.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | YOUNG VICTORY 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 11 | 13.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | STRONGEST BOY 後段發力 B K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 8 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | FORERUNNER CP1 H Bowman · T P Yung | H Bowman | T P Yung | 4 | 5.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | CHARMANDER XB-/B/TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 14 | 74.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | HELENE WISDOM STAR B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 13 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | E RAINBOW TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 V H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 12 | 100.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 3 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 18.0 | 8-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FORERUNNER | 24.6% | 4.07 | 9 |
| 2 | 9 | RUN RUN BUDDY | 17.2% | 5.83 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 7.2% | 13.79 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | REGENCY BO BO | 7.1% | 13.99 | 14 |
| 5 | 10 | STRONGEST BOY | 6.6% | 15.19 | 8 |
| 6 | 11 | E RAINBOW | 6.2% | 16.04 | 12 |
| 7 | 4 | HELENE WISDOM STAR | 6.1% | 16.36 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | SPEED FAY FAY | 5.4% | 18.56 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | YOUNG VICTORY | 4.6% | 21.63 | 7 |
| 10 | 6 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 4.4% | 22.93 | 4 |
| 11 | 8 | BLUE MARLIN | 3.6% | 27.45 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | SPEEDSTAR | 3.3% | 30.07 | 3 |
| 13 | 14 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 2.3% | 43.70 | 13 |
| 14 | 1 | CHARMANDER | 1.3% | 76.13 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 47.5
PLACE
5 19
9 16.5
13 169.5
QUINELLA
5,9 103
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 40.5
5,13 457.5
9,13 468
FORECAST
9,5 215
TIERCE
9,5,13 11,144
TRIO
5,9,13 1,155
FIRST 4
5,6,9,13 12,011
QUARTET
9,5,13,6 166,510
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 23
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,12/5,9,13 624,621
5TH DOUBLE
6/5 32
6/9 187
TRIPLE TRIO
4,7,11/1,6,12/5,9,13 2,027,309
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,7,11/1,6,12/Any Combination 19,234