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Sha Tin · 2023-02-12 · 15:39

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RUN RUN BUDDY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with SMILING COLLECTOR second and SPEEDSTAR third. The winner led throughout. The 4.4 favourite SMILING COLLECTOR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 RUN RUN BUDDY Wire to wire CP 1.22.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 1 4.7 1-1/4
2 5 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 7 4.4 1-1/4
3 13 SPEEDSTAR B K H Chan · D J Hall 2 76.0 3
4 6 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB C L Chau · P C Ng 3 25.0 3-3/4
5 12 SPEED FAY FAY B H Bentley · A T Millard 5 7.3 3-3/4
6 8 BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly H A Hamelin · D J Whyte 9 43.0 3-3/4
7 7 YOUNG VICTORY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 11 13.0 4-1/2
8 10 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 13.0 5-1/2
9 2 FORERUNNER CP1 H Bowman · T P Yung 4 5.0 5-1/2
10 1 CHARMANDER XB-/B/TT L Currie · J Richards 14 74.0 6-1/4
11 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 12.0 7
12 11 E RAINBOW TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 19.0 7-1/4
13 14 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V H T Mo · P F Yiu 12 100.0 7-1/2
14 3 REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 18.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN RUN BUDDY2. SMILING COLLECTOR+1.25L3. SPEEDSTAR+3L4. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+3.75L5. SPEED FAY FAY+3.75L6. BLUE MARLIN+3.75L7. YOUNG VICTORY+4.5L8. STRONGEST BOY+5.5L9. FORERUNNER+5.5L10. CHARMANDER+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FORERUNNER (24.6%) finished 9th — the winner RUN RUN BUDDY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FORERUNNER 24.6% 4.07 9
2 9 RUN RUN BUDDY 17.2% 5.83 1
3 5 SMILING COLLECTOR 7.2% 13.79 2
4 3 REGENCY BO BO 7.1% 13.99 14
5 10 STRONGEST BOY 6.6% 15.19 8
6 11 E RAINBOW 6.2% 16.04 12
7 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR 6.1% 16.36 11
8 12 SPEED FAY FAY 5.4% 18.56 5
9 7 YOUNG VICTORY 4.6% 21.63 7
10 6 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 4.4% 22.93 4
11 8 BLUE MARLIN 3.6% 27.45 6
12 13 SPEEDSTAR 3.3% 30.07 3
13 14 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 2.3% 43.70 13
14 1 CHARMANDER 1.3% 76.13 10
FORERUNNERRUN RUN BUDDY — wonSMILING COLLECTORREGENCY BO BOSTRONGEST BOYE RAINBOWHELENE WISDOM STARSPEED FAY FAYYOUNG VICTORYBILLIONAIRE SECRETBLUE MARLINSPEEDSTARWINWIN THIRTYTHREECHARMANDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 47.5

PLACE

5 19

9 16.5

13 169.5

QUINELLA

5,9 103

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 40.5

5,13 457.5

9,13 468

FORECAST

9,5 215

TIERCE

9,5,13 11,144

TRIO

5,9,13 1,155

FIRST 4

5,6,9,13 12,011

QUARTET

9,5,13,6 166,510

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 23

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,12/5,9,13 624,621

5TH DOUBLE

6/5 32

6/9 187

TRIPLE TRIO

4,7,11/1,6,12/5,9,13 2,027,309

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,7,11/1,6,12/Any Combination 19,234