Sha Tin · 2023-02-12 · 14:01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-12 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT STELLAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with WINNING METHOD second and CALIFORNIA TEN third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CIRCUIT STELLAR Wire to wire H/TT 1.21.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 2 | 1.8 | N |
| 2 | 3 | WINNING METHOD Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 1 | 4.2 | N |
| 3 | 7 | CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 6 | 9.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | TORONADO PHANTOM Closed strongly TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 5 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 4 | 22.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | KA YING MASTER TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 3 | 19.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | BOURBONAIRE H K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 8 | 11.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CIRCUIT STELLAR | 38.3% | 2.61 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 21.4% | 4.68 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | WINNING METHOD | 8.4% | 11.92 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | KA YING MASTER | 7.6% | 13.10 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 6.5% | 15.35 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 6.4% | 15.65 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | BOURBONAIRE | 6.3% | 15.89 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | TORONADO PHANTOM | 5.1% | 19.49 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 18.5
PLACE
3 14.5
5 10.1
7 24
QUINELLA
3,5 32.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 17
3,7 57.5
5,7 41
FORECAST
5,3 55
TIERCE
5,3,7 252
TRIO
3,5,7 99
FIRST 4
3,5,7,8 82
QUARTET
5,3,7,8 658
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/3 65
8/5 234.5
3 PICK 1
A1 13
A2 —
A3 —