Sha Tin · 2023-02-12 · 14:31
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LASER VICTORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with SOARING TOWER second and TOGEPI third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LASER VICTORY TT1 1.09.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 12 | 2.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | SOARING TOWER B V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 2 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | TOGEPI H Bowman · A T Millard | H Bowman | A T Millard | 8 | 6.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | HAPPY TRIO SR K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 5 | 9.7 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR B R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 4 | 8.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | IMPERIAL MAGEE H/SR/XB/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 9 | 27.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | GLUCK RACER V M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 10 | 21.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | OVER THE MOON B/TT C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | MIRACULOUS HONOUR H/SB1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 1 | 44.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | CALL ME DANDY CP/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 6.5 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | TURTLE AGAIN B1/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 97.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | SPICY SO SMART H/XB H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 11 | 85.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LASER VICTORY | 26.9% | 3.72 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | CALL ME DANDY | 16.5% | 6.05 | 10 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPY TRIO | 10.8% | 9.22 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR | 10.2% | 9.83 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | TOGEPI | 8.1% | 12.34 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | SOARING TOWER | 8.1% | 12.36 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | GLUCK RACER | 5.0% | 19.89 | 7 |
| 8 | 12 | OVER THE MOON | 4.8% | 21.04 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | IMPERIAL MAGEE | 4.1% | 24.57 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | MIRACULOUS HONOUR | 3.1% | 32.60 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | SPICY SO SMART | 1.7% | 58.79 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | TURTLE AGAIN | 0.7% | 134.78 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 25
PLACE
4 14.5
7 19
11 34
QUINELLA
4,11 167
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 56.5
4,11 64.5
7,11 121.5
FORECAST
4,11 413
TIERCE
4,11,7 2,216
TRIO
4,7,11 415
FIRST 4
4,7,10,11 830
QUARTET
4,11,7,10 14,769
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,7/4,7,11 4,190
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18
3RD DOUBLE
5/4 62
5/11 40.5