Sha Tin · 2023-02-12 · 15:03
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ADEFILL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 6-1/4, with HAPPY TANGO second and CALIFORNIA CONCORD third. The 2.9 favourite STAND UP finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ADEFILL CP 1.08.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 10 | 4.2 | 6-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPY TANGO B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 5 | 29.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 4 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | NOBLE ONE H/TT H Bowman · K W Lui | H Bowman | K W Lui | 8 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | M M NEBULA B2/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 3 | 10.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | CHARMING STEED TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 20.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | BRILLIANT PIONEER H R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 6 | 83.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | STAND UP Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 2.9 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | SUMMIT CHEERS TT L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 9 | 20.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | COMMANDING MISSILE B-/H/PC1/TT C L Chau · J Richards | C L Chau | J Richards | 7 | 36.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | HOODABUTTA L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 12 | 143.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 1 | 5.4 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | STAND UP | 31.4% | 3.19 | 8 |
| 2 | 10 | COLOURFUL PRINCE | 20.4% | 4.91 | 12 |
| 3 | 6 | ADEFILL | 12.3% | 8.12 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | NOBLE ONE | 9.5% | 10.48 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 5.6% | 17.96 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | CHARMING STEED | 5.5% | 18.25 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 4.6% | 21.82 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | M M NEBULA | 3.7% | 27.13 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | SUMMIT CHEERS | 2.9% | 34.64 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | HAPPY TANGO | 1.9% | 52.24 | 2 |
| 11 | 7 | BRILLIANT PIONEER | 1.4% | 70.52 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | HOODABUTTA | 0.8% | 119.58 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 42.5
PLACE
1 33.5
6 16
12 60.5
QUINELLA
6,12 560
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 76.5
1,12 337.5
6,12 153.5
FORECAST
6,12 1,261
TIERCE
6,12,1 7,772
TRIO
1,6,12 1,535
FIRST 4
1,4,6,12 4,181
QUARTET
6,12,1,4 69,887
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 24.5
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/6 146.5
4/12 171.5