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Sha Tin · 2023-02-12 · 16:11

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-02-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FLYING DRAGON, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with FIERY DIAMOND second and ELON third. The 3.7 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FLYING DRAGON B1 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C H Yip 10 14.0 N
2 2 FIERY DIAMOND C L Chau · T P Yung 5 6.0 N
3 7 ELON E/P Z Purton · J Size 8 4.9 3/4
4 6 STUNNING IMPACT B C Y Ho · P C Ng 7 15.0 1
5 4 CZARSON CP K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 5.0 1-1/4
6 3 LIGHTNING BOLT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 3.7 3-1/2
7 5 MAN STAR V L Ferraris · K H Ting 3 10.0 3-1/2
8 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B H N Wong · K W Lui 4 87.0 3-3/4
9 9 LIKE THAT V M F Poon · F C Lor 1 15.0 4-1/2
10 8 ROMAN TURBO B/XB K H Chan · D J Hall 11 38.0 4-3/4
11 1 MAXIMUS A Hamelin · A T Millard 2 21.0 5-1/4
10 CALIFORNIA VANES Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING DRAGON2. FIERY DIAMOND+0.05L3. ELON+0.75L4. STUNNING IMPACT+1L5. CZARSON+1.25L6. LIGHTNING BOLT+3.5L7. MAN STAR+3.5L8. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+3.75L9. LIKE THAT+4.5L10. ROMAN TURBO+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick STUNNING IMPACT (20.1%) finished 4th — the winner FLYING DRAGON was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STUNNING IMPACT 20.1% 4.98 4
2 7 ELON 17.8% 5.62 3
3 2 FIERY DIAMOND 13.2% 7.60 2
4 3 LIGHTNING BOLT 12.7% 7.86 6
5 4 CZARSON 11.3% 8.86 5
6 8 ROMAN TURBO 5.8% 17.31 10
7 12 FLYING DRAGON 5.1% 19.45 1
8 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 4.9% 20.21 8
9 9 LIKE THAT 4.1% 24.11 9
10 1 MAXIMUS 2.6% 39.06 11
11 5 MAN STAR 2.4% 42.26 7
STUNNING IMPACTELONFIERY DIAMONDLIGHTNING BOLTCZARSONROMAN TURBOFLYING DRAGON — wonHIGH RISE SOLDIERLIKE THATMAXIMUSMAN STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 142

PLACE

2 20.5

7 21

12 45.5

QUINELLA

2,12 481.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 62

2,12 141.5

7,12 140.5

FORECAST

12,2 1,127

TIERCE

12,2,7 8,469

TRIO

2,7,12 731

FIRST 4

2,6,7,12 1,912

QUARTET

12,2,7,6 69,122

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 26.5

A2

A1

6TH DOUBLE

9/2 31.5

9/12 992.5