沙田 · 2023-05-21 · 14:31
第 4場
2023-05-21沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由L Ferraris策騎、D J Hall訓練的JOYFUL GENIUS勝出，贏出3/4。MASTER OF FORTUNE獲得亞軍；LUCKY ETERNITY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門MASTER OF FORTUNE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | JOYFUL GENIUS 後段發力 B 1.35.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 5 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | MASTER OF FORTUNE 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 3 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | LUCKY ETERNITY 後段發力 CP1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 14 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | DARCI JOY 後段發力 B/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 12 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | LOOKING COOL 後段發力 CP K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 4 | 6.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | DRAGON DELIGHT 後段發力 B L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 9 | 8.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | RIGHT AS RAIN 後段發力 B B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 6 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | YOUNG VICTORY B1/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 2 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | BORN THE SAME DAY 後段發力 H/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 11 | 116.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 13 | JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 13 | 118.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 14 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 8 | 5.8 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | FAST BUCK P L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 7 | 38.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | CALL ME MIGHTY B1/H1 H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 1 | 86.0 | 30 |
| 14 | 5 | GOLDEN WARSTEED 早段領放 TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 10 | 96.0 | 57-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MASTER OF FORTUNE | 23.4% | 4.28 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | LOOKING COOL | 12.8% | 7.80 | 5 |
| 3 | 14 | SUPERB MOVE | 9.3% | 10.76 | 11 |
| 4 | 3 | YOUNG VICTORY | 9.1% | 10.97 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | DRAGON DELIGHT | 7.4% | 13.55 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | RIGHT AS RAIN | 6.9% | 14.48 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 6.8% | 14.60 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 | DARCI JOY | 6.7% | 14.86 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | FAST BUCK | 4.8% | 20.71 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | LUCKY ETERNITY | 4.1% | 24.56 | 3 |
| 11 | 13 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 3.0% | 33.15 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | CALL ME MIGHTY | 2.2% | 45.58 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | BORN THE SAME DAY | 1.8% | 56.03 | 9 |
| 14 | 5 | GOLDEN WARSTEED | 1.6% | 61.01 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 102.5
PLACE
4 14
10 37.5
11 27.5
QUINELLA
4,11 173
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 95.5
4,11 57.5
10,11 270
FORECAST
11,4 617
TIERCE
11,4,10 7,809
TRIO
4,10,11 849
FIRST 4
1,4,10,11 2,046
QUARTET
11,4,10,1 65,174
全部彩池（另 3 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,11/4,10,11 957,017
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 25.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 22.5
1/11 1,175.5