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Sha Tin · 2023-05-21 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-21 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL GENIUS, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with MASTER OF FORTUNE second and LUCKY ETERNITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite MASTER OF FORTUNE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 JOYFUL GENIUS Closed strongly B 1.35.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall 5 10.0 3/4
2 4 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 3 3.1 3/4
3 10 LUCKY ETERNITY Closed strongly CP1 C L Chau · T P Yung 14 16.0 2-1/4
4 1 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · P F Yiu 12 12.0 2-3/4
5 9 LOOKING COOL Closed strongly CP K Teetan · F C Lor 4 6.7 3-1/4
6 7 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 9 8.4 3-1/2
7 6 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B B Avdulla · D J Hall 6 13.0 5
8 3 YOUNG VICTORY B1/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 2 13.0 5
9 12 BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 11 116.0 5-1/4
10 13 JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT Y L Chung · C W Chang 13 118.0 5-3/4
11 14 SUPERB MOVE B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 8 5.8 7-1/2
12 2 FAST BUCK P L Currie · J Size 7 38.0 8-1/4
13 8 CALL ME MIGHTY B1/H1 H W Lai · C W Chang 1 86.0 30
14 5 GOLDEN WARSTEED Led early TT K C Leung · W Y So 10 96.0 57-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOYFUL GENIUS2. MASTER OF FORTUNE+0.75L3. LUCKY ETERNITY+2.25L4. DARCI JOY+2.75L5. LOOKING COOL+3.25L6. DRAGON DELIGHT+3.5L7. RIGHT AS RAIN+5L8. YOUNG VICTORY+5L9. BORN THE SAME DAY+5.25L10. JOYFUL CHAMPION+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MASTER OF FORTUNE (23.4%) finished 2nd — the winner JOYFUL GENIUS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MASTER OF FORTUNE 23.4% 4.28 2
2 9 LOOKING COOL 12.8% 7.80 5
3 14 SUPERB MOVE 9.3% 10.76 11
4 3 YOUNG VICTORY 9.1% 10.97 8
5 7 DRAGON DELIGHT 7.4% 13.55 6
6 6 RIGHT AS RAIN 6.9% 14.48 7
7 11 JOYFUL GENIUS 6.8% 14.60 1
8 1 DARCI JOY 6.7% 14.86 4
9 2 FAST BUCK 4.8% 20.71 12
10 10 LUCKY ETERNITY 4.1% 24.56 3
11 13 JOYFUL CHAMPION 3.0% 33.15 10
12 8 CALL ME MIGHTY 2.2% 45.58 13
13 12 BORN THE SAME DAY 1.8% 56.03 9
14 5 GOLDEN WARSTEED 1.6% 61.01 14
MASTER OF FORTUNELOOKING COOLSUPERB MOVEYOUNG VICTORYDRAGON DELIGHTRIGHT AS RAINJOYFUL GENIUS — wonDARCI JOYFAST BUCKLUCKY ETERNITYJOYFUL CHAMPIONCALL ME MIGHTYBORN THE SAME DAYGOLDEN WARSTEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 102.5

PLACE

4 14

10 37.5

11 27.5

QUINELLA

4,11 173

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 95.5

4,11 57.5

10,11 270

FORECAST

11,4 617

TIERCE

11,4,10 7,809

TRIO

4,10,11 849

FIRST 4

1,4,10,11 2,046

QUARTET

11,4,10,1 65,174

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,11/4,10,11 957,017

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 25.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE

1/4 22.5

1/11 1,175.5