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Sha Tin · 2023-05-21 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-21 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. PAKISTAN FRIEND, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with ROUND THE EARTH second and FOREVER FOLKS third. The winner led throughout. The 4.7 favourite ROUND THE EARTH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 PAKISTAN FRIEND Wire to wire TT 1.49.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W Y So 11 11.0 1/2
2 2 ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall 3 4.7 1/2
3 4 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang 2 9.3 3/4
4 8 FOREVER GLORIOUS B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 7.1 1-1/2
5 7 GOLD TACK CP L Ferraris · A T Millard 9 6.5 2-1/4
6 14 SUNNY BABY L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 7.9 2-1/2
7 10 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB M Chadwick · P C Ng 10 14.0 2-3/4
8 11 TELECOM CHEETAH Closed strongly B/XB/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 8 43.0 3
9 9 GO GO SIXTEEN Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 5 8.4 3-1/4
10 6 PERFECT MARYKNOLL B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 4 15.0 4-1/4
11 5 INCANTO PREPARED TT A Badel · W Y So 6 55.0 4-1/4
12 12 SURREALISM B Y L Chung · R Gibson 14 27.0 6-1/2
13 1 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 13 20.0 8-3/4
14 3 TATTENHAM H/P/XB1/TT1 M L Yeung · P C Ng 7 153.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PAKISTAN FRIEND2. ROUND THE EARTH+0.5L3. FOREVER FOLKS+0.75L4. FOREVER GLORIOUS+1.5L5. GOLD TACK+2.25L6. SUNNY BABY+2.5L7. TURQUOISE ALPHA+2.75L8. TELECOM CHEETAH+3L9. GO GO SIXTEEN+3.25L10. PERFECT MARYKNOLL+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROUND THE EARTH (18.9%) finished 2nd — the winner PAKISTAN FRIEND was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ROUND THE EARTH 18.9% 5.30 2
2 8 FOREVER GLORIOUS 15.3% 6.55 4
3 7 GOLD TACK 12.2% 8.19 5
4 14 SUNNY BABY 8.1% 12.38 6
5 4 FOREVER FOLKS 7.3% 13.76 3
6 9 GO GO SIXTEEN 6.8% 14.65 9
7 13 PAKISTAN FRIEND 5.8% 17.16 1
8 10 TURQUOISE ALPHA 5.0% 20.10 7
9 12 SURREALISM 4.9% 20.28 12
10 5 INCANTO PREPARED 4.3% 23.30 11
11 6 PERFECT MARYKNOLL 4.0% 25.28 10
12 1 CIRCUIT NINE 3.5% 28.20 13
13 11 TELECOM CHEETAH 2.8% 35.81 8
14 3 TATTENHAM 1.2% 85.14 14
ROUND THE EARTHFOREVER GLORIOUSGOLD TACKSUNNY BABYFOREVER FOLKSGO GO SIXTEENPAKISTAN FRIEND — wonTURQUOISE ALPHASURREALISMINCANTO PREPAREDPERFECT MARYKNOLLCIRCUIT NINETELECOM CHEETAHTATTENHAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 113

PLACE

2 21.5

4 32

13 32

QUINELLA

2,13 351

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 81

2,13 122.5

4,13 272.5

FORECAST

13,2 666

TIERCE

13,2,4 10,086

TRIO

2,4,13 1,493

FIRST 4

2,4,8,13 2,198

QUARTET

13,2,4,8 68,449

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/11/2 1,574

1/11/13 29,155

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 21

A2

4TH DOUBLE

11/2 167

11/13 2,591.5