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Sha Tin · 2023-05-21 · 17:55

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-21 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FIND MY LOVE, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K L Man, won by N, with TAJ DRAGON second and HAPPY DAILY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite MIGHTY STRIDE finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.21.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly CP-/H1/TT 1.21.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K L Man 10 69.0 N
2 10 TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly C Y Ho · P C Ng 1 3.5 N
3 11 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly V-/TT K Teetan · L Ho 7 15.0 1-1/4
4 9 SUPER TEN B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 3 45.0 3-1/2
5 7 HAMERON Closed strongly L Ferraris · K W Lui 13 19.0 3-3/4
6 13 WIDE BLUE YONDER B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 9.6 4
7 8 MIDORI BEAUTY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 14.0 4-1/2
8 5 BEAUTY MISSILE B K C Leung · F C Lor 4 5.1 4-3/4
9 1 MIGHTY STRIDE B Avdulla · P F Yiu 5 3.3 5
10 12 PARTERRE Led early Y L Chung · A T Millard 6 33.0 6-1/4
11 2 SINBA CP/TT L Currie · J Richards 2 18.0 8-1/2
12 4 CHARITY BINGO C L Chau · C S Shum 9 31.0 12-1/2
3 BEAUTY INSPIRE Z Purton · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIND MY LOVE2. TAJ DRAGON+0.05L3. HAPPY DAILY+1.25L4. SUPER TEN+3.5L5. HAMERON+3.75L6. WIDE BLUE YONDER+4L7. MIDORI BEAUTY+4.5L8. BEAUTY MISSILE+4.75L9. MIGHTY STRIDE+5L10. PARTERRE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TAJ DRAGON (18.1%) finished 2nd — the winner FIND MY LOVE was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 TAJ DRAGON 18.1% 5.51 2
2 1 MIGHTY STRIDE 15.0% 6.65 9
3 5 BEAUTY MISSILE 11.6% 8.65 8
4 2 SINBA 10.2% 9.78 11
5 7 HAMERON 8.1% 12.28 5
6 8 MIDORI BEAUTY 7.9% 12.73 7
7 13 WIDE BLUE YONDER 7.2% 13.95 6
8 12 PARTERRE 6.6% 15.26 10
9 4 CHARITY BINGO 4.9% 20.54 12
10 11 HAPPY DAILY 4.5% 22.41 3
11 9 SUPER TEN 3.3% 30.45 4
12 6 FIND MY LOVE 2.7% 37.19 1
TAJ DRAGONMIGHTY STRIDEBEAUTY MISSILESINBAHAMERONMIDORI BEAUTYWIDE BLUE YONDERPARTERRECHARITY BINGOHAPPY DAILYSUPER TENFIND MY LOVE — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 691.5

PLACE

6 130

10 14

11 39

QUINELLA

6,10 1,086.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 326

6,11 950.5

10,11 77

FORECAST

6,10 2,501

TIERCE

6,10,11 40,719

TRIO

6,10,11 3,630

FIRST 4

6,9,10,11 15,478

QUARTET

6,10,11,9 549,841

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

2,11/1/6 5,779

2,11/1/10 62

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 26

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,10,11/6,10,11 1,030,772

9TH DOUBLE

1/6 2,015.5

1/10 28

SIX UP

2,13/2,3/2,8/2,5,11/1,10/6,10 14,513

1 [J Size]

6 [M F Poon]