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Sha Tin · 2023-05-21 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SPEEDY FORTUNE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by J Size, won by 3, with DREAM PURSUER second and STAR CLUB third. The 2.3 favourite SUNLIGHT POWER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SPEEDY FORTUNE 1.09.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · J Size 4 8.2 3
2 2 DREAM PURSUER C L Chau · K L Man 11 11.0 3
3 8 STAR CLUB A Badel · R Gibson 6 25.0 3
4 4 SUNLIGHT POWER K Teetan · P F Yiu 7 2.3 3-1/4
5 3 HORSESAIN BOLT B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 9 5.7 5
6 6 HO HO STAR A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 49.0 5-1/4
7 11 CRAIG'S MASTER H/SR/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 8 65.0 5-3/4
8 7 MAGIC TRAVELLER P1/TT1 M Chadwick · W Y So 2 15.0 6-1/4
9 9 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 3 15.0 9-1/2
10 10 DIAMOND FOREVER C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 74.0 13-3/4
11 5 ART LITE TT L Ferraris · J Richards 1 126.0 15-1/4
12 1 SPEEDY SMARTIE TT Z Purton · T P Yung 12 5.6 30-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEEDY FORTUNE2. DREAM PURSUER+3L3. STAR CLUB+3L4. SUNLIGHT POWER+3.25L5. HORSESAIN BOLT+5L6. HO HO STAR+5.25L7. CRAIG'S MASTER+5.75L8. MAGIC TRAVELLER+6.25L9. EIGHT TRIGRAMS+9.5L10. DIAMOND FOREVER+13.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUNLIGHT POWER (25.3%) finished 4th — the winner SPEEDY FORTUNE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SUNLIGHT POWER 25.3% 3.96 4
2 1 SPEEDY SMARTIE 22.5% 4.44 12
3 3 HORSESAIN BOLT 12.0% 8.33 5
4 12 SPEEDY FORTUNE 9.2% 10.87 1
5 2 DREAM PURSUER 7.4% 13.46 2
6 8 STAR CLUB 6.0% 16.71 3
7 7 MAGIC TRAVELLER 5.3% 18.74 8
8 6 HO HO STAR 3.5% 28.19 6
9 10 DIAMOND FOREVER 3.0% 33.80 10
10 9 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 2.5% 39.82 9
11 11 CRAIG'S MASTER 2.3% 42.65 7
12 5 ART LITE 0.9% 113.33 11
SUNLIGHT POWERSPEEDY SMARTIEHORSESAIN BOLTSPEEDY FORTUNE — wonDREAM PURSUERSTAR CLUBMAGIC TRAVELLERHO HO STARDIAMOND FOREVEREIGHT TRIGRAMSCRAIG'S MASTERART LITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 82.5

PLACE

2 27.5

8 50.5

12 26.5

QUINELLA

2,12 459.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 332.5

2,12 129

8,12 250.5

FORECAST

12,2 896

TIERCE

12,2,8 19,498

TRIO

2,8,12 4,039

FIRST 4

2,4,8,12 944

QUARTET

12,2,8,4 41,036

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 26

A3