沙田 · 2023-07-16 · 20:48
第 10場
2023-07-16沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO YIELDING。由Z Purton策騎、J Size訓練的SIMPLE HEDGE勝出，贏出N。HAPPY DAILY獲得亞軍；CIRCUIT MIGHTY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SIMPLE HEDGE 後段發力 1.23.09 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 8 | 1.9 | N |
| 2 | 6 | HAPPY DAILY 後段發力 TT C L Chau · L Ho | C L Chau | L Ho | 4 | 9.4 | N |
| 3 | 5 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 14 | 8.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | LUCKY GOLD B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 6.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 14 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 早段領放 V-/B1/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 10 | 25.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | BIG RED H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 2 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | ALL ARE MINE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 13 | 91.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | ORIENTAL SMOKE 後段發力 B L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 9 | 72.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | QUANTUM PATCH TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 6 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | CHARITY GRACE 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 1 | 46.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | SUPER FOOTBALL 後段發力 B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 7 | 140.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP CP H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 12 | 110.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 13 | 13 | SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 11 | 17.0 | 22-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | IMPERIAL GOODNESS SR1/TT1 K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 3 | 131.0 | 48-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 38.1% | 2.62 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY GOLD | 14.9% | 6.71 | 4 |
| 3 | 13 | SUPER HIGHWAY | 11.8% | 8.49 | 13 |
| 4 | 6 | HAPPY DAILY | 7.0% | 14.26 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 5.6% | 17.81 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | QUANTUM PATCH | 5.0% | 19.81 | 9 |
| 7 | 14 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS | 4.0% | 25.10 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | BIG RED | 3.0% | 33.03 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 2.6% | 39.11 | 12 |
| 10 | 3 | CHARITY GRACE | 2.5% | 39.38 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 1.8% | 55.34 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 1.5% | 67.67 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | ALL ARE MINE | 1.4% | 71.47 | 7 |
| 14 | 7 | IMPERIAL GOODNESS | 0.7% | 144.96 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 19.5
PLACE
4 11.5
5 24.5
6 25.5
QUINELLA
4,6 88.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 38
4,6 39
5,6 91
FORECAST
4,6 113
TIERCE
4,6,5 696
TRIO
4,5,6 213
FIRST 4
4,5,6,11 192
QUARTET
4,6,5,11 2,517
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 14.5
A3 —
9TH DOUBLE
6/4 134.5
6/6 79.5