沙田 · 2023-07-16 · 16:31
第 2場
2023-07-16沙田第2場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Hamelin策騎、R Gibson訓練的ERNEST FEELING勝出，贏出SH。VANTASTIC CHOICE獲得亞軍；FORTUNE MASTER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.1倍大熱門VANTASTIC CHOICE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ERNEST FEELING 後段發力 B/TT 1.23.31 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 2 | 9.5 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | VANTASTIC CHOICE 後段發力 B Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 6 | 2.1 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER 後段發力 B/XB/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 3 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | MASTER OF LUCK 早段領放 B/TT H Bentley · K W Lui | H Bentley | K W Lui | 12 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | THIS IS CHARISMA 後段發力 B2/TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 69.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | NOBLE ACE TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 8 | 24.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | STARSHIP EIGHTY 後段發力 B/H/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 10 | 50.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | STAR OF YUEN LONG B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 4 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | YOUNG SPARKLE B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 13 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | INSPIRING CITY XB1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 5 | 8.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SUPER HORNET B/XB/TT L Ferraris · J Richards | L Ferraris | J Richards | 7 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 11 | 120.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | DOUBLE SHOW B/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte | B Avdulla | D J Whyte | 9 | 18.0 | 7-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 24.2% | 4.14 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER | 14.2% | 7.03 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | DOUBLE SHOW | 8.9% | 11.27 | 13 |
| 4 | 5 | ERNEST FEELING | 8.3% | 11.99 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | MASTER OF LUCK | 8.3% | 12.07 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | YOUNG SPARKLE | 8.2% | 12.15 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | INSPIRING CITY | 7.1% | 14.12 | 10 |
| 8 | 12 | SUPER HORNET | 5.2% | 19.27 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | NOBLE ACE | 5.1% | 19.43 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 3.5% | 28.17 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 2.4% | 41.92 | 12 |
| 12 | 13 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 2.3% | 42.91 | 5 |
| 13 | 4 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 2.2% | 45.48 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 95.5
PLACE
2 13.5
5 26.5
10 31
QUINELLA
2,5 131.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 55
2,10 61
5,10 103.5
FORECAST
5,2 396
TIERCE
5,2,10 2,292
TRIO
2,5,10 237
FIRST 4
1,2,5,10 380
QUARTET
5,2,10,1 10,691
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE
8/2 52.5
8/5 616
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 35.5
A1 —