沙田 · 2024-12-29 · 11:53
第 4場
2024-12-29沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米。由Z Purton策騎、J Size訓練的ENDEARED勝出，贏出2。SHAMUS STORM獲得亞軍；SKY VINO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ENDEARED 後段發力 XB 1.21.79 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 9 | 2.7 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | SHAMUS STORM 後段發力 A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 13 | 8.1 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | SKY VINO H/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 4 | 106.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | PEARL OF PANG'S B1 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 5 | 5.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | MASTER PHOENIX 後段發力 B/TT H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 6 | 4.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | BEAUTY MISSILE B-/CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | CLEAR COURAGE XB/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 2 | 31.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | LITTLE FAIRY B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 10 | 50.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | GREAT SPIRIT 後段發力 M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 3 | 8.7 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | LUCKY GOLD 後段發力 B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 8 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | HE WAS ME 後段發力 B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 64.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | LEEDOX CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 11 | 161.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | ORIENTAL TYCOON PC P N Wong · C W Chang | P N Wong | C W Chang | 14 | 110.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | BRILLIANT FIRE 早段領放 H/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 151.0 | 18-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MASTER PHOENIX | 19.9% | 5.01 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | ENDEARED | 17.7% | 5.66 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | GREAT SPIRIT | 17.3% | 5.78 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | BEAUTY MISSILE | 15.0% | 6.65 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | PEARL OF PANG'S | 8.1% | 12.27 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | SHAMUS STORM | 3.8% | 26.04 | 2 |
| 7 | 13 | CLEAR COURAGE | 3.4% | 29.72 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | LUCKY GOLD | 2.9% | 34.07 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | SKY VINO | 2.5% | 40.49 | 3 |
| 10 | 14 | LITTLE FAIRY | 2.3% | 43.07 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | BRILLIANT FIRE | 2.3% | 43.18 | 14 |
| 12 | 8 | LEEDOX | 1.9% | 52.48 | 12 |
| 13 | 12 | ORIENTAL TYCOON | 1.5% | 66.84 | 13 |
| 14 | 1 | HE WAS ME | 1.3% | 79.67 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 27.5
PLACE
2 13.5
5 30
6 210.5
QUINELLA
2,5 137.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 55.5
2,6 471
5,6 1,109.5
FORECAST
2,5 269
TIERCE
2,5,6 6,832
TRIO
2,5,6 2,110
FIRST 4
2,5,6,10 2,800
QUARTET
2,5,6,10 56,349
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,7,9/2,5,6 60,419
3RD DOUBLE
9/2 82.5
9/5 51