Sha Tin · 2024-12-29 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.79

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	ENDEARED Closed strongly XB 1.21.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	9	131 lb	2.7	2
2	5	SHAMUS STORM Closed strongly A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	13	127 lb	8.1	2
3	6	SKY VINO H/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes	M L Yeung	C Fownes	4	127 lb	106.0	4-1/4
4	10	PEARL OF PANG'S B1 M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	5	123 lb	5.8	4-1/4
5	4	MASTER PHOENIX Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · D Eustace	H Bowman	D Eustace	6	129 lb	4.5	4-1/2
6	3	BEAUTY MISSILE B-/CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	1	129 lb	10.0	4-3/4
7	13	CLEAR COURAGE XB/TT H Bentley · C S Shum	H Bentley	C S Shum	2	119 lb	31.0	5-1/4
8	14	LITTLE FAIRY B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu	H T Mo	P F Yiu	10	115 lb	50.0	6-1/2
9	7	GREAT SPIRIT Closed strongly M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	3	126 lb	8.7	6-1/2
10	11	LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	8	120 lb	36.0	7
11	1	HE WAS ME Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	7	135 lb	64.0	9-3/4
12	8	LEEDOX CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So	K De Melo	W Y So	11	125 lb	161.0	14-1/2
13	12	ORIENTAL TYCOON PC P N Wong · C W Chang	P N Wong	C W Chang	14	110 lb	110.0	14-3/4
14	9	BRILLIANT FIRE Led early H/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	12	123 lb	151.0	18-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-29 was Class 4 over 1400m. ENDEARED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2, with SHAMUS STORM second and SKY VINO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick MASTER PHOENIX (19.9%) finished 5th — the winner ENDEARED was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	MASTER PHOENIX	19.9%	5.01	5	4.5
2	2	ENDEARED	17.7%	5.66	1	2.7
3	7	GREAT SPIRIT	17.3%	5.78	9	8.7
4	3	BEAUTY MISSILE	15.0%	6.65	6	10.0
5	10	PEARL OF PANG'S	8.1%	12.27	4	5.8
6	5	SHAMUS STORM	3.8%	26.04	2	8.1
7	13	CLEAR COURAGE	3.4%	29.72	7	31.0
8	11	LUCKY GOLD	2.9%	34.07	10	36.0
9	6	SKY VINO	2.5%	40.49	3	106.0
10	14	LITTLE FAIRY	2.3%	43.07	8	50.0
11	9	BRILLIANT FIRE	2.3%	43.18	14	151.0
12	8	LEEDOX	1.9%	52.48	12	161.0
13	12	ORIENTAL TYCOON	1.5%	66.84	13	110.0
14	1	HE WAS ME	1.3%	79.67	11	64.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 27.5

PLACE

2 13.5

5 30

6 210.5

QUINELLA

2,5 137.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 55.5

2,6 471

5,6 1,109.5

FORECAST

2,5 269

TIERCE

2,5,6 6,832

TRIO

2,5,6 2,110

FIRST 4

2,5,6,10 2,800

QUARTET

2,5,6,10 56,349

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,9/2,5,6 60,419

3RD DOUBLE

9/2 82.5

9/5 51

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