Sha Tin · 2024-12-29 · 11:53

Race 4

Class 4 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-29 was Class 4 over 1400m. ENDEARED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2, with SHAMUS STORM second and SKY VINO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.79

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	ENDEARED Closed strongly XB 1.21.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	9	131 lb	2.7	2
2	5	SHAMUS STORM Closed strongly A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	13	127 lb	8.1	2
3	6	SKY VINO H/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes	M L Yeung	C Fownes	4	127 lb	106.0	4-1/4
4	10	PEARL OF PANG'S B1 M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	5	123 lb	5.8	4-1/4
5	4	MASTER PHOENIX Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · D Eustace	H Bowman	D Eustace	6	129 lb	4.5	4-1/2
6	3	BEAUTY MISSILE B-/CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	1	129 lb	10.0	4-3/4
7	13	CLEAR COURAGE XB/TT H Bentley · C S Shum	H Bentley	C S Shum	2	119 lb	31.0	5-1/4
8	14	LITTLE FAIRY B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu	H T Mo	P F Yiu	10	115 lb	50.0	6-1/2
9	7	GREAT SPIRIT Closed strongly M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	3	126 lb	8.7	6-1/2
10	11	LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	8	120 lb	36.0	7
11	1	HE WAS ME Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	7	135 lb	64.0	9-3/4
12	8	LEEDOX CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So	K De Melo	W Y So	11	125 lb	161.0	14-1/2
13	12	ORIENTAL TYCOON PC P N Wong · C W Chang	P N Wong	C W Chang	14	110 lb	110.0	14-3/4
14	9	BRILLIANT FIRE Led early H/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	12	123 lb	151.0	18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick MASTER PHOENIX (19.9%) finished 5th — the winner ENDEARED was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	MASTER PHOENIX	19.9%	5.01	5	4.5
2	2	ENDEARED	17.7%	5.66	1	2.7
3	7	GREAT SPIRIT	17.3%	5.78	9	8.7
4	3	BEAUTY MISSILE	15.0%	6.65	6	10.0
5	10	PEARL OF PANG'S	8.1%	12.27	4	5.8
6	5	SHAMUS STORM	3.8%	26.04	2	8.1
7	13	CLEAR COURAGE	3.4%	29.72	7	31.0
8	11	LUCKY GOLD	2.9%	34.07	10	36.0
9	6	SKY VINO	2.5%	40.49	3	106.0
10	14	LITTLE FAIRY	2.3%	43.07	8	50.0
11	9	BRILLIANT FIRE	2.3%	43.18	14	151.0
12	8	LEEDOX	1.9%	52.48	12	161.0
13	12	ORIENTAL TYCOON	1.5%	66.84	13	110.0
14	1	HE WAS ME	1.3%	79.67	11	64.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 27.5

PLACE

2 13.5

5 30

6 210.5

QUINELLA

2,5 137.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 55.5

2,6 471

5,6 1,109.5

FORECAST

2,5 269

TIERCE

2,5,6 6,832

TRIO

2,5,6 2,110

FIRST 4

2,5,6,10 2,800

QUARTET

2,5,6,10 56,349

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,9/2,5,6 60,419

3RD DOUBLE

9/2 82.5

9/5 51

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