Sha Tin · 2024-12-29 · 14:01
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | BRAVEHEARTS Closed strongly 2.00.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · M Newnham | M F Poon | M Newnham | 2 | 2.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | WINNING DRAGON TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 4 | 17.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | ROMANTIC THOR Closed strongly CP/XB/TT A Pouchin · C S Shum | A Pouchin | C S Shum | 8 | 9.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | STAR CONTACT B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 3 | 18.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | MONEY CATCHER Led early B M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 1 | 7.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | AWESOME FLUKE P/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 6 | 6.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | NAVAL FORCE Closed strongly TT1 K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 10 | 9.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | SENOR TOBA TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 22.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT B Thompson · A S Cruz | B Thompson | A S Cruz | 9 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | ATULLIBIGEAL B/H/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 7 | 41.0 | 4-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-29 was Class 2 over 2000m. BRAVEHEARTS, ridden by M F Poon and trained by M Newnham, won by 1, with WINNING DRAGON second and ROMANTIC THOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | BRAVEHEARTS | 38.0% | 2.63 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | AWESOME FLUKE | 11.5% | 8.67 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | SENOR TOBA | 11.2% | 8.91 | 8 |
| 4 | 10 | NAVAL FORCE | 8.7% | 11.46 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | MONEY CATCHER | 7.0% | 14.28 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | WINNING DRAGON | 6.8% | 14.69 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | STAR CONTACT | 5.9% | 17.02 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | ROMANTIC THOR | 4.4% | 22.59 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | ATULLIBIGEAL | 3.6% | 27.62 | 10 |
| 10 | 6 | THE BEST PEACH | 2.7% | 36.50 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 22
PLACE
5 30
7 36
9 11
QUINELLA
7,9 188
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 191.5
5,9 43.5
7,9 69
FORECAST
9,7 215
TIERCE
9,7,5 1,624
TRIO
5,7,9 501
FIRST 4
5,7,8,9 1,253
QUARTET
9,7,5,8 14,255
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
14/7 197
14/9 226