Sha Tin · 2024-12-29 · 11:53
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-29 was Class 5 over 1000m. COSMO NAVIGATOR, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/2, with COUNTRY DANCER second and BEAU GOSSE third. The 3.3 favourite HO HO STAR finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B 0.57.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 14 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | COUNTRY DANCER E B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 7.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | BEAU GOSSE XB-/B/TT2 M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 11 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | HO HO STAR H Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 6 | 3.3 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | ACE TALENT H-/P/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 9 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | PLENTIFUL XB/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 5 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | GORGEOUS VITALITY TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 13 | 8.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | SUPER ELITE B/H/XB K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 1 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | WIND SPEEDER B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 8 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | YOO YOO KNIGHT TT1 C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 3 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPY FEELING B2/TT2 A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 4 | 41.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | ALLOY KING B H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 2 | 57.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 5 | GUSTY FIGHTER H-/PS-/XB/BO1 L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 12 | 31.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 3 | HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 10 | 11.0 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HO HO STAR | 22.1% | 4.52 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | COUNTRY DANCER | 10.3% | 9.75 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 10.2% | 9.81 | 1 |
| 4 | 13 | WIND SPEEDER | 10.0% | 10.05 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | SUPER ELITE | 8.8% | 11.36 | 8 |
| 6 | 6 | ACE TALENT | 6.7% | 14.92 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | PLENTIFUL | 6.6% | 15.17 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 5.7% | 17.59 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | HAPPY HORSE | 5.6% | 17.99 | 14 |
| 10 | 9 | YOO YOO KNIGHT | 4.0% | 24.85 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | BEAU GOSSE | 3.2% | 31.07 | 3 |
| 12 | 11 | ALLOY KING | 2.4% | 41.14 | 12 |
| 13 | 12 | HAPPY FEELING | 2.3% | 43.03 | 11 |
| 14 | 5 | GUSTY FIGHTER | 2.1% | 46.72 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 104
PLACE
1 22.5
2 33.5
14 35.5
QUINELLA
1,2 379.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 139.5
1,14 108
2,14 215.5
FORECAST
2,1 876
TIERCE
2,1,14 8,268
TRIO
1,2,14 1,471
FIRST 4
1,2,10,14 841
QUARTET
2,1,14,10 27,688