Sha Tin · 2024-12-29 · 11:53
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-29 was Class 5 over 1400m. REGENCY HAPPY STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by D Eustace, won by 1, with MANYTHANKS FOREVER second and GALLANT CROWN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite MANYTHANKS FOREVER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly XB1/TT 1.22.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D Eustace | A Badel | D Eustace | 8 | 5.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 1 | 2.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | GALLANT CROWN Led early CP-/B2/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 3 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FIRE BALL Closed strongly CP Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 2 | 9.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 13 | COOL BLUE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 11 | 33.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | FLYING PHANTOM Closed strongly H Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 10 | 5.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | RATTAN WORLD Closed strongly CP1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 5 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | STAR LINE B K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 6 | 40.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | GO HERO Closed strongly B/TT K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 4 | 41.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | LINK Closed strongly BO/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 13 | 58.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | MULTIDARLING Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 54.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | MIU FA FA CP-/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 14 | 61.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 5 | RUBY SAILING B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 7 | 23.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 2 | GANGNAM STAR XB H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 9 | 41.0 | 10-1/2 |
| — | 0 | VERBIER H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | FLYING PHANTOM | 22.1% | 4.53 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | FIRE BALL | 8.9% | 11.25 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | GALLANT CROWN | 4.4% | 22.48 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | STAR LINE | 4.3% | 23.01 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | RUBY SAILING | 4.3% | 23.13 | 13 |
| 7 | 11 | GO HERO | 4.0% | 25.14 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | RATTAN WORLD | 3.7% | 26.93 | 7 |
| 9 | 14 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR | 2.9% | 34.31 | 1 |
| 10 | 13 | COOL BLUE | 2.6% | 37.96 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | MULTIDARLING | 2.3% | 42.76 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | MIU FA FA | 2.2% | 46.00 | 12 |
| 13 | 7 | LINK | 2.0% | 50.87 | 10 |
| 14 | 2 | GANGNAM STAR | 1.6% | 63.86 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
14 57.5
PLACE
4 35.5
6 11.5
14 21
QUINELLA
6,14 85.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 56
4,14 94
6,14 34
FORECAST
14,6 197
TIERCE
14,6,4 1,666
TRIO
4,6,14 264
FIRST 4
4,6,8,14 380
QUARTET
14,6,4,8 9,624
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
2/6 45.5
2/14 866
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,14/4,6,14 48,534