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Sha Tin · 2024-12-29 · 11:53

Race 10

Class 3 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-29 was Class 3 over 1400m. TOURBILLON PRINCE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by HD, with STORM RIDER second and MARKWIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite MARKWIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 TOURBILLON PRINCE Closed strongly TT 1.22.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 13 20.0 HD
2 11 STORM RIDER B Thompson · D A Hayes 3 17.0 HD
3 7 MARKWIN Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 6 1.9 HD
4 2 CHARMING LEGEND Led early H Bowman · C S Shum 7 5.0 N
5 13 WINNING WING Closed strongly TT1 H T Mo · K W Lui 4 60.0 3/4
6 3 BEAUTY CRESCENT TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 5 6.8 1
7 4 LO RIDER M L Yeung · C Fownes 2 27.0 1-1/4
8 9 SOLID IMPACT Closed strongly CP A Badel · D J Hall 8 66.0 1-3/4
9 5 TAMRA BLITZ H/SR A Pouchin · D J Whyte 11 23.0 1-3/4
10 14 LESLIE PC-/B2 P N Wong · C W Chang 9 41.0 3
11 8 ILLUMINOUS Closed strongly V-/B2 K Teetan · F C Lor 12 22.0 3-1/4
12 10 BEAUTY VIVA L Hewitson · P C Ng 10 44.0 3-1/4
13 6 WINNING GOLD Closed strongly CP-/H-/TT K De Melo · W Y So 14 55.0 3-3/4
14 12 EXCELLENCE VALUE L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 61.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOURBILLON PRINCE2. STORM RIDER+0.2L3. MARKWIN+0.2L4. CHARMING LEGEND+0.05L5. WINNING WING+0.75L6. BEAUTY CRESCENT+1L7. LO RIDER+1.25L8. SOLID IMPACT+1.75L9. TAMRA BLITZ+1.75L10. LESLIE+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MARKWIN (33.0%) finished 3rd — the winner TOURBILLON PRINCE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MARKWIN 33.0% 3.03 3
2 2 CHARMING LEGEND 16.5% 6.06 4
3 3 BEAUTY CRESCENT 16.4% 6.10 6
4 1 TOURBILLON PRINCE 7.2% 13.98 1
5 12 EXCELLENCE VALUE 4.2% 23.88 14
6 8 ILLUMINOUS 3.9% 25.92 11
7 5 TAMRA BLITZ 3.2% 31.51 9
8 14 LESLIE 3.1% 31.86 10
9 9 SOLID IMPACT 2.6% 37.82 8
10 6 WINNING GOLD 2.6% 38.70 13
11 4 LO RIDER 2.1% 47.91 7
12 13 WINNING WING 2.0% 51.04 5
13 11 STORM RIDER 1.8% 54.35 2
14 10 BEAUTY VIVA 1.5% 65.62 12
MARKWINCHARMING LEGENDBEAUTY CRESCENTTOURBILLON PRINCE — wonEXCELLENCE VALUEILLUMINOUSTAMRA BLITZLESLIESOLID IMPACTWINNING GOLDLO RIDERWINNING WINGSTORM RIDERBEAUTY VIVA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 208

PLACE

1 51.5

7 10.5

11 33

QUINELLA

1,11 1,361

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 78

1,11 318

7,11 60.5

FORECAST

1,11 2,326

TIERCE

1,11,7 9,162

TRIO

1,7,11 882

FIRST 4

1,2,7,11 783

QUARTET

1,11,7,2 36,554

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

14/3/1 7,166

14/3/11 1,892

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,11/1,7,11 16,360

9TH DOUBLE

3/1 581

3/11 121

SIX UP

2,9/6,10/2,8/6,14/3,11/1,11 46,180

1 [J Size]

1 [Z Purton]