沙田 · 2025-01-31 · 05:35
第 3場
2025-01-31沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1600米。由H Bowman策騎、D J Hall訓練的SUNSTRIDER勝出，贏出1/2。SUNDAY'S SERENADE獲得亞軍；ORIENTAL SMOKE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.6倍大熱門LUCKY FIONN跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUNSTRIDER 後段發力 B 1.35.01 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 4 | 7.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 6 | 5.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 11 | 30.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | LUCKY FIONN 後段發力 CP/TT M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 13 | 2.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE 後段發力 B C Soumillon · C H Yip | C Soumillon | C H Yip | 14 | 26.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 14 | SWEET SMILE 後段發力 H Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | JUMBO FORTUNE 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 12 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FOREVER FOLKS 後段發力 B- B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 10 | 47.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | CELTIC TIMES B/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 3 | 80.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | ONLY U 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 9 | 38.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT A Atzeni · K L Man | A Atzeni | K L Man | 8 | 26.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | PATCH OF LUCKY 早段領放 B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 7 | 125.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 5 | SILVER UP B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 6 | D STAR B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 41.0 | 14-1/4 |
| — | 0 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LUCKY FIONN | 29.8% | 3.36 | 4 |
| 2 | 13 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 15.3% | 6.52 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | SWEET SMILE | 15.0% | 6.68 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 | SUNSTRIDER | 7.3% | 13.75 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | SILVER UP | 5.4% | 18.55 | 13 |
| 6 | 3 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE | 5.1% | 19.64 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 5.1% | 19.67 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 3.6% | 27.65 | 11 |
| 9 | 6 | D STAR | 3.3% | 30.07 | 14 |
| 10 | 7 | FOREVER FOLKS | 2.7% | 37.69 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | ONLY U | 2.6% | 38.43 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | CELTIC TIMES | 2.2% | 45.94 | 9 |
| 13 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 2.1% | 47.95 | 3 |
| 14 | 8 | PATCH OF LUCKY | 0.6% | 155.09 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 76
PLACE
1 20.5
4 66
13 18.5
QUINELLA
1,13 196
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 226
1,13 72
4,13 195.5
FORECAST
1,13 372
TIERCE
1,13,4 5,978
TRIO
1,4,13 1,073
FIRST 4
1,4,9,13 662
QUARTET
1,13,4,9 19,204
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,9/1,4,13 588,238
2ND DOUBLE
5/1 119
5/13 20.5