Sha Tin · 2025-01-31 · 13:31

Race 3

Class 4 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.01

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	SUNSTRIDER Closed strongly B 1.35.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	4	135 lb	7.6	1/2
2	13	SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · J Richards	K Teetan	J Richards	6	120 lb	5.4	1/2
3	4	ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes	B Shinn	D A Hayes	11	130 lb	30.0	1-1/2
4	9	LUCKY FIONN Closed strongly CP/TT M Barzalona · P F Yiu	M Barzalona	P F Yiu	13	124 lb	2.6	1-3/4
5	3	BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B C Soumillon · C H Yip	C Soumillon	C H Yip	14	131 lb	26.0	2
6	14	SWEET SMILE Closed strongly H Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	2	120 lb	4.5	2-1/2
7	2	JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D Eustace	M F Poon	D Eustace	12	123 lb	19.0	2-3/4
8	7	FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B- B Thompson · C W Chang	B Thompson	C W Chang	10	125 lb	47.0	3-3/4
9	10	CELTIC TIMES B/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo	A Hamelin	W K Mo	3	122 lb	80.0	5
10	12	ONLY U Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung	K C Leung	T P Yung	9	122 lb	38.0	5-3/4
11	11	CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT A Atzeni · K L Man	A Atzeni	K L Man	8	122 lb	26.0	6
12	8	PATCH OF LUCKY Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	7	125 lb	125.0	6-3/4
13	5	SILVER UP B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham	L Ferraris	M Newnham	1	128 lb	22.0	7
14	6	D STAR B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	5	127 lb	41.0	14-1/4
—	0	FLAGSHIP WARRIOR E C W Wong · C Fownes	E C W Wong	C Fownes	—	127 lb	—	—

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-31 was Class 4 over 1600m. SUNSTRIDER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with SUNDAY'S SERENADE second and ORIENTAL SMOKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite LUCKY FIONN finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick LUCKY FIONN (29.8%) finished 4th — the winner SUNSTRIDER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	LUCKY FIONN	29.8%	3.36	4	2.6
2	13	SUNDAY'S SERENADE	15.3%	6.52	2	5.4
3	14	SWEET SMILE	15.0%	6.68	6	4.5
4	1	SUNSTRIDER	7.3%	13.75	1	7.6
5	5	SILVER UP	5.4%	18.55	13	22.0
6	3	BRIGHT INHERITANCE	5.1%	19.64	5	26.0
7	2	JUMBO FORTUNE	5.1%	19.67	7	19.0
8	11	CIRCUIT MIGHTY	3.6%	27.65	11	26.0
9	6	D STAR	3.3%	30.07	14	41.0
10	7	FOREVER FOLKS	2.7%	37.69	8	47.0
11	12	ONLY U	2.6%	38.43	10	38.0
12	10	CELTIC TIMES	2.2%	45.94	9	80.0
13	4	ORIENTAL SMOKE	2.1%	47.95	3	30.0
14	8	PATCH OF LUCKY	0.6%	155.09	12	125.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 76

PLACE

1 20.5

4 66

13 18.5

QUINELLA

1,13 196

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 226

1,13 72

4,13 195.5

FORECAST

1,13 372

TIERCE

1,13,4 5,978

TRIO

1,4,13 1,073

FIRST 4

1,4,9,13 662

QUARTET

1,13,4,9 19,204

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,9/1,4,13 588,238

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 119

5/13 20.5

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data