Sha Tin · 2025-01-31 · 05:35
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-31 was Class 4 over 1600m. SUNSTRIDER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with SUNDAY'S SERENADE second and ORIENTAL SMOKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite LUCKY FIONN finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUNSTRIDER Closed strongly B 1.35.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 4 | 7.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 6 | 5.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 11 | 30.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | LUCKY FIONN Closed strongly CP/TT M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 13 | 2.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B C Soumillon · C H Yip | C Soumillon | C H Yip | 14 | 26.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 14 | SWEET SMILE Closed strongly H Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 12 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B- B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 10 | 47.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | CELTIC TIMES B/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 3 | 80.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | ONLY U Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 9 | 38.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT A Atzeni · K L Man | A Atzeni | K L Man | 8 | 26.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 8 | PATCH OF LUCKY Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 7 | 125.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 5 | SILVER UP B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 6 | D STAR B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 41.0 | 14-1/4 |
| — | 0 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LUCKY FIONN | 29.8% | 3.36 | 4 |
| 2 | 13 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 15.3% | 6.52 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | SWEET SMILE | 15.0% | 6.68 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 | SUNSTRIDER | 7.3% | 13.75 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | SILVER UP | 5.4% | 18.55 | 13 |
| 6 | 3 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE | 5.1% | 19.64 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 5.1% | 19.67 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 3.6% | 27.65 | 11 |
| 9 | 6 | D STAR | 3.3% | 30.07 | 14 |
| 10 | 7 | FOREVER FOLKS | 2.7% | 37.69 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | ONLY U | 2.6% | 38.43 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | CELTIC TIMES | 2.2% | 45.94 | 9 |
| 13 | 4 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 2.1% | 47.95 | 3 |
| 14 | 8 | PATCH OF LUCKY | 0.6% | 155.09 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 76
PLACE
1 20.5
4 66
13 18.5
QUINELLA
1,13 196
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 226
1,13 72
4,13 195.5
FORECAST
1,13 372
TIERCE
1,13,4 5,978
TRIO
1,4,13 1,073
FIRST 4
1,4,9,13 662
QUARTET
1,13,4,9 19,204
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,9/1,4,13 588,238
2ND DOUBLE
5/1 119
5/13 20.5