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Sha Tin · 2025-01-31 · 04:35

Race 1

Class 5 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-31 was Class 5 over 1200m. HO HO STAR, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with FLYING ROMANTIC second and WIND SPEEDER third. The 2.5 favourite STERLING WONGCHOY finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.10.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 HO HO STAR H 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C H Yip 5 6.7 N
2 7 FLYING ROMANTIC B1 K Teetan · D J Hall 3 24.0 N
3 14 WIND SPEEDER B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 11 42.0 N
4 9 FALCON COURT B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 2 18.0 3/4
5 8 THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT J Melham · P F Yiu 10 42.0 3/4
6 4 SPEEDY SMARTIE TT H Bowman · T P Yung 12 13.0 2-1/4
7 1 WINNING HEART B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 6 11.0 2-1/4
8 11 MORE RICE B/TT K De Melo · W Y So 9 17.0 2-1/2
9 6 SPEEDY FORTUNE B-/CP1/TT L Ferraris · D Eustace 1 4.8 2-3/4
10 3 URBAN TRIUMPH V/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 13 28.0 3
11 5 STERLING WONGCHOY B/XB Z Purton · D J Whyte 7 2.5 3
12 2 ALMIGHTY KICK XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 20.0 3-1/2
13 13 HAPPY FEELING B/TT A Badel · J Richards 4 230.0 5-1/4
14 12 ALLOY KING B A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 103.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HO HO STAR2. FLYING ROMANTIC+0.05L3. WIND SPEEDER+0.05L4. FALCON COURT+0.75L5. THE CONCENTRATION+0.75L6. SPEEDY SMARTIE+2.25L7. WINNING HEART+2.25L8. MORE RICE+2.5L9. SPEEDY FORTUNE+2.75L10. URBAN TRIUMPH+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick STERLING WONGCHOY (24.4%) finished 11th — the winner HO HO STAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 STERLING WONGCHOY 24.4% 4.10 11
2 1 WINNING HEART 15.6% 6.42 7
3 6 SPEEDY FORTUNE 10.2% 9.79 9
4 10 HO HO STAR 9.7% 10.30 1
5 3 URBAN TRIUMPH 7.8% 12.75 10
6 4 SPEEDY SMARTIE 6.3% 15.76 6
7 14 WIND SPEEDER 4.9% 20.59 3
8 2 ALMIGHTY KICK 4.1% 24.26 12
9 9 FALCON COURT 3.8% 26.42 4
10 11 MORE RICE 3.2% 30.84 8
11 8 THE CONCENTRATION 3.0% 33.32 5
12 7 FLYING ROMANTIC 2.8% 35.31 2
13 13 HAPPY FEELING 2.6% 38.96 13
14 12 ALLOY KING 1.5% 66.86 14
STERLING WONGCHOYWINNING HEARTSPEEDY FORTUNEHO HO STAR — wonURBAN TRIUMPHSPEEDY SMARTIEWIND SPEEDERALMIGHTY KICKFALCON COURTMORE RICETHE CONCENTRATIONFLYING ROMANTICHAPPY FEELINGALLOY KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 67

PLACE

7 56.5

10 20.5

14 95

QUINELLA

7,10 599

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 177

7,14 768

10,14 314

FORECAST

10,7 1,110

TIERCE

10,7,14 24,810

TRIO

7,10,14 5,484

FIRST 4

7,9,10,14 16,229

QUARTET

10,7,14,9 275,890