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Sha Tin · 2025-01-31 · 08:50

Race 9

Class 3 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-31 was Class 3 over 1600m. NEW FUTURE FOLKS, ridden by B Thompson and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/2, with SKY HEART second and SILVERY BREEZE third. The winner led throughout. The 4.7 favourite EMBRACES finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.35.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 NEW FUTURE FOLKS Wire to wire 1.35.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · C W Chang 13 18.0 1-1/2
2 5 SKY HEART Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5 5.3 1-1/2
3 2 SILVERY BREEZE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D Eustace 12 5.4 2
4 3 EMBRACES Closed strongly TT C L Chau · W K Mo 11 4.7 2
5 7 FALLON Closed strongly B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz 1 7.9 2-1/4
6 1 HUGE WAVE TT H Bentley · K H Ting 7 21.0 2-1/2
7 9 BLESSED NATION Closed strongly XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 9 32.0 2-3/4
8 14 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR A Badel · M Newnham 14 50.0 3-1/4
9 13 LEGEND ST PAUL'S CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 2 5.4 3-1/2
10 8 PACKING TURBINE TT M Barzalona · P C Ng 4 12.0 3-1/2
11 6 ENTHRALLED Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 10 39.0 3-3/4
12 12 PRESTIGE GOOD B/TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 22.0 4
13 10 STORMI TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 6 153.0 4-3/4
14 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON B C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 97.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEW FUTURE FOLKS2. SKY HEART+1.5L3. SILVERY BREEZE+2L4. EMBRACES+2L5. FALLON+2.25L6. HUGE WAVE+2.5L7. BLESSED NATION+2.75L8. FORTUNE SUPERSTAR+3.25L9. LEGEND ST PAUL'S+3.5L10. PACKING TURBINE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick EMBRACES (20.1%) finished 4th — the winner NEW FUTURE FOLKS was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 EMBRACES 20.1% 4.97 4
2 2 SILVERY BREEZE 15.5% 6.44 3
3 7 FALLON 14.6% 6.84 5
4 5 SKY HEART 12.8% 7.80 2
5 13 LEGEND ST PAUL'S 11.9% 8.37 9
6 6 ENTHRALLED 4.6% 21.70 11
7 1 HUGE WAVE 4.3% 23.34 6
8 8 PACKING TURBINE 4.1% 24.48 10
9 14 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR 3.1% 32.38 8
10 11 NEW FUTURE FOLKS 2.5% 40.77 1
11 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 2.0% 50.47 14
12 12 PRESTIGE GOOD 1.8% 56.69 12
13 9 BLESSED NATION 1.7% 58.50 7
14 10 STORMI 1.0% 103.03 13
EMBRACESSILVERY BREEZEFALLONSKY HEARTLEGEND ST PAUL'SENTHRALLEDHUGE WAVEPACKING TURBINEFORTUNE SUPERSTARNEW FUTURE FOLKS — wonUNIVERSAL HORIZONPRESTIGE GOODBLESSED NATIONSTORMI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 180.5

PLACE

2 20

5 18

11 50

QUINELLA

5,11 548.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 56

2,11 158.5

5,11 165

FORECAST

11,5 1,201

TIERCE

11,5,2 8,253

TRIO

2,5,11 935

FIRST 4

2,3,5,11 1,009

QUARTET

11,5,2,3 33,457

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,11/2,5,11 157,723

8TH DOUBLE

11/5 98

11/11 3,253.5