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Sha Tin · 2025-01-31 · 17:23

Race 10

Class 3 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MID WINTER WIND 1.09.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 42.0 N
2 11 SUNNY DA BEST TT Z Purton · W Y So 6 2.5 N
3 8 LO PAN SPIRIT B/TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting 11 6.6 1/2
4 5 LUCKY EIGHT M Barzalona · P F Yiu 13 9.6 2
5 13 BEAUTY LIGHT A Badel · J Size 10 20.0 2-1/4
6 1 PACKING POWER TT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 18.0 3
7 14 OFFROAD MASTER B M Chadwick · W K Mo 5 16.0 3
8 7 ANOTHER ZONDA B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 8 150.0 3
9 4 KING MILES C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 11.0 3-1/2
10 3 YOUNG SUPERSTAR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 5.7 4-1/2
11 9 RIDING TOGETHER XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 4 40.0 5-1/4
12 6 I P O BROS M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 138.0 6
13 10 RUN RUN SMART TT H Bentley · F C Lor 2 17.0 6-1/4
14 12 AURORA PATCH B-/V1 K Teetan · P C Ng 14 40.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-31 was Class 3 over 1200m. MID WINTER WIND, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with SUNNY DA BEST second and LO PAN SPIRIT third. The 2.5 favourite SUNNY DA BEST finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MID WINTER WIND—2. SUNNY DA BEST+0.05L3. LO PAN SPIRIT+0.5L4. LUCKY EIGHT+2L5. BEAUTY LIGHT+2.25L6. PACKING POWER+3L7. OFFROAD MASTER+3L8. ANOTHER ZONDA+3L9. KING MILES+3.5L10. YOUNG SUPERSTAR+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YOUNG SUPERSTAR (28.6%) finished 10th — the winner MID WINTER WIND was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 YOUNG SUPERSTAR 28.6% 3.49 10
2 11 SUNNY DA BEST 18.1% 5.52 2
3 8 LO PAN SPIRIT 9.9% 10.11 3
4 14 OFFROAD MASTER 5.2% 19.35 7
5 1 PACKING POWER 5.1% 19.75 6
6 10 RUN RUN SMART 5.1% 19.77 13
7 13 BEAUTY LIGHT 4.8% 20.94 5
8 9 RIDING TOGETHER 4.7% 21.18 11
9 12 AURORA PATCH 4.6% 21.69 14
10 4 KING MILES 4.6% 21.81 9
11 5 LUCKY EIGHT 4.2% 23.84 4
12 2 MID WINTER WIND 2.9% 33.94 1
13 7 ANOTHER ZONDA 1.6% 63.33 8
14 6 I P O BROS 0.7% 147.92 12
YOUNG SUPERSTARSUNNY DA BESTLO PAN SPIRITOFFROAD MASTERPACKING POWERRUN RUN SMARTBEAUTY LIGHTRIDING TOGETHERAURORA PATCHKING MILESLUCKY EIGHTMID WINTER WIND — wonANOTHER ZONDAI P O BROS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 422.5

PLACE

2 103

8 24

11 14

QUINELLA

2,11 875

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 388

2,11 302.5

8,11 44

FORECAST

2,11 1,877

TIERCE

2,11,8 15,598

TRIO

2,8,11 1,597

FIRST 4

2,5,8,11 2,859

QUARTET

2,11,8,5 141,733

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

11/2 4,693.5

11/11 159.5