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Sha Tin · 2025-01-31 · 09:25

Race 10

Class 3 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-31 was Class 3 over 1200m. MID WINTER WIND, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with SUNNY DA BEST second and LO PAN SPIRIT third. The 2.5 favourite SUNNY DA BEST finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MID WINTER WIND 1.09.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 42.0 N
2 11 SUNNY DA BEST TT Z Purton · W Y So 6 2.5 N
3 8 LO PAN SPIRIT B/TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting 11 6.6 1/2
4 5 LUCKY EIGHT M Barzalona · P F Yiu 13 9.6 2
5 13 BEAUTY LIGHT A Badel · J Size 10 20.0 2-1/4
6 1 PACKING POWER TT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 18.0 3
7 14 OFFROAD MASTER B M Chadwick · W K Mo 5 16.0 3
8 7 ANOTHER ZONDA B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 8 150.0 3
9 4 KING MILES C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 11.0 3-1/2
10 3 YOUNG SUPERSTAR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 5.7 4-1/2
11 9 RIDING TOGETHER XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 4 40.0 5-1/4
12 6 I P O BROS M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 138.0 6
13 10 RUN RUN SMART TT H Bentley · F C Lor 2 17.0 6-1/4
14 12 AURORA PATCH B-/V1 K Teetan · P C Ng 14 40.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MID WINTER WIND2. SUNNY DA BEST+0.05L3. LO PAN SPIRIT+0.5L4. LUCKY EIGHT+2L5. BEAUTY LIGHT+2.25L6. PACKING POWER+3L7. OFFROAD MASTER+3L8. ANOTHER ZONDA+3L9. KING MILES+3.5L10. YOUNG SUPERSTAR+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YOUNG SUPERSTAR (28.6%) finished 10th — the winner MID WINTER WIND was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 YOUNG SUPERSTAR 28.6% 3.49 10
2 11 SUNNY DA BEST 18.1% 5.52 2
3 8 LO PAN SPIRIT 9.9% 10.11 3
4 14 OFFROAD MASTER 5.2% 19.35 7
5 1 PACKING POWER 5.1% 19.75 6
6 10 RUN RUN SMART 5.1% 19.77 13
7 13 BEAUTY LIGHT 4.8% 20.94 5
8 9 RIDING TOGETHER 4.7% 21.18 11
9 12 AURORA PATCH 4.6% 21.69 14
10 4 KING MILES 4.6% 21.81 9
11 5 LUCKY EIGHT 4.2% 23.84 4
12 2 MID WINTER WIND 2.9% 33.94 1
13 7 ANOTHER ZONDA 1.6% 63.33 8
14 6 I P O BROS 0.7% 147.92 12
YOUNG SUPERSTARSUNNY DA BESTLO PAN SPIRITOFFROAD MASTERPACKING POWERRUN RUN SMARTBEAUTY LIGHTRIDING TOGETHERAURORA PATCHKING MILESLUCKY EIGHTMID WINTER WIND — wonANOTHER ZONDAI P O BROS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 422.5

PLACE

2 103

8 24

11 14

QUINELLA

2,11 875

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 388

2,11 302.5

8,11 44

FORECAST

2,11 1,877

TIERCE

2,11,8 15,598

TRIO

2,8,11 1,597

FIRST 4

2,5,8,11 2,859

QUARTET

2,11,8,5 141,733

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

11/2 4,693.5

11/11 159.5