Sha Tin · 2025-01-31 · 06:05
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-31 was Group 3 over 1800m. CHANCHENG GLORY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with WINNING DRAGON second and ENSUED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite ENSUED finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHANCHENG GLORY Closed strongly B/XB 1.46.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui | H Bowman | K W Lui | 9 | 7.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | WINNING DRAGON TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 6 | 29.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | ENSUED Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 10 | 2.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | ENCOUNTERED B K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 2 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 28.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | HAPPY TOGETHER H/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 6.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | STUNNING PEACH Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 4.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | SWORD POINT Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 42.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 11 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | NIMBLE NIMBUS V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 7 | 33.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | LA CITY BLANCHE TT M Barzalona · A S Cruz | M Barzalona | A S Cruz | 1 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ENSUED | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | SWORD POINT | 12.2% | 8.18 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | HAPPY TOGETHER | 10.6% | 9.47 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 8.2% | 12.21 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | CHANCHENG GLORY | 7.6% | 13.21 | 1 |
| 6 | 11 | WINNING DRAGON | 7.3% | 13.68 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 6.8% | 14.73 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | STUNNING PEACH | 6.5% | 15.38 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | ENCOUNTERED | 6.1% | 16.34 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | NIMBLE NIMBUS | 5.6% | 17.81 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | FIVE G PATCH | 4.0% | 25.12 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 70.5
PLACE
4 24
6 13.5
11 55
QUINELLA
4,11 982.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 43.5
4,11 229.5
6,11 121.5
FORECAST
4,11 1,305
TIERCE
4,11,6 6,252
TRIO
4,6,11 666
FIRST 4
4,6,9,11 1,358
QUARTET
4,11,6,9 45,112
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 746.5
1/11 348.5