沙田 · 2025-10-01 · 10:05
第 5場
2025-10-01沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米。由Z Purton策騎、D A Hayes訓練的ORIENTAL SMOKE勝出。BEAUTY VIVA獲得亞軍；DOUBLE WIN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.4倍大熱門BEAUTY VIVA跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ORIENTAL SMOKE 後段發力 1:46.67 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 13 | 13.0 | — |
| 2 | 4 | BEAUTY VIVA 後段發力 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 13 | DOUBLE WIN 後段發力 M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 12 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | FIREFOOT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 2 | 7.8 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | CAN'T GO WONG M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 28.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | PERFECT PAIRING 後段發力 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 9 | 52.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | FLOOF 後段發力 E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 10 | 37.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | FOREVER FOLKS 後段發力 K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 3 | 8.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | PACKING HURRICANE H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 14 | 18.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | HAILTOTHEVICTORS D Probert · D Eustace | D Probert | D Eustace | 4 | 48.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 | NORTHERN BEAST A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 5 | 47.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | ROMANTIC FANTASY A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 6 | 11.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | DILBAGH R Kingscote · D J Whyte | R Kingscote | D J Whyte | 8 | 30.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | ONE AND ONLY 早段領放 K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 11 | 75.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BEAUTY VIVA | 17.9% | 5.60 | 2 |
| 2 | 13 | DOUBLE WIN | 16.5% | 6.06 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | FOREVER FOLKS | 12.6% | 7.91 | 8 |
| 4 | 12 | ROMANTIC FANTASY | 9.2% | 10.87 | 12 |
| 5 | 11 | FIREFOOT | 7.4% | 13.57 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | PACKING HURRICANE | 7.0% | 14.25 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 5.9% | 16.98 | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | NORTHERN BEAST | 4.4% | 22.74 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | CAN'T GO WONG | 4.3% | 23.03 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | PERFECT PAIRING | 3.5% | 28.32 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | DILBAGH | 3.5% | 28.78 | 13 |
| 12 | 9 | FLOOF | 3.4% | 29.72 | 7 |
| 13 | 14 | HAILTOTHEVICTORS | 3.2% | 31.10 | 10 |
| 14 | 10 | ONE AND ONLY | 1.2% | 84.14 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 131.5
PLACE
1 34.5
4 15.5
13 17
QUINELLA
1,4 236
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 82.5
1,13 86.5
4,13 36
FORECAST
1,4 525
TIERCE
1,4,13 1,890
TRIO
1,4,13 256
FIRST 4
1,4,11,13 454
QUARTET
1,4,13,11 13,989
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST TREBLE
6/14/1 3,864
6/14/4 190
4TH DOUBLE
14/1 817
14/4 35