Sha Tin · 2019-09-01

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with WORLD FAMOUS second and REGENCY BO BO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.60

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	CORDYCEPS Closed strongly B 1.21.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	126 lb	3.5	1
2	7	WORLD FAMOUS Closed strongly CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	3	123 lb	9.3	1
3	1	REGENCY BO BO Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum	H T Mo	C S Shum	10	130 lb	11.0	2
4	10	BEAUTY DAY Led early B/H M L Yeung · T P Yung	M L Yeung	T P Yung	7	116 lb	6.9	2-1/4
5	9	MONGOLIAN LEGEND Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui	J Moreira	Y S Tsui	2	121 lb	4.5	2-1/2
6	13	ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V H W Lai · K L Man	H W Lai	K L Man	1	118 lb	34.0	3-3/4
7	6	UNICRON JEWELLERY Closed strongly B B Shinn · J Size	B Shinn	J Size	5	126 lb	57.0	4-1/2
8	14	TANGMERE Closed strongly V/XB M Chadwick · C Fownes	M Chadwick	C Fownes	4	116 lb	31.0	4-1/2
9	11	HEAVENLY THOUGHT H K H Chan · F C Lor	K H Chan	F C Lor	13	108 lb	54.0	4-3/4
10	8	BEAUTY ENERGY B/TT K Teetan · J Moore	K Teetan	J Moore	8	121 lb	6.3	5
11	3	PARTY TOGETHER H/SR N Callan · L Ho	N Callan	L Ho	11	129 lb	285.0	5-1/2
12	2	CHUNG WAH SPIRIT Closed strongly P-/TT T H So · C H Yip	T H So	C H Yip	9	128 lb	199.0	7-1/4
13	12	JOLLY CONVERGENCE Closed strongly CP L Hewitson · R Gibson	L Hewitson	R Gibson	12	118 lb	175.0	9
14	4	PRIVATE ROCKET CP-/B1 C Schofield · D J Whyte	C Schofield	D J Whyte	14	129 lb	9.9	9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick MONGOLIAN LEGEND (28.2%) finished 5th — the winner CORDYCEPS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	MONGOLIAN LEGEND	28.2%	3.55	5	4.5
2	5	CORDYCEPS	16.2%	6.18	1	3.5
3	8	BEAUTY ENERGY	13.1%	7.62	10	6.3
4	10	BEAUTY DAY	7.1%	14.00	4	6.9
5	7	WORLD FAMOUS	6.9%	14.45	2	9.3
6	4	PRIVATE ROCKET	5.6%	17.79	14	9.9
7	1	REGENCY BO BO	5.0%	19.82	3	11.0
8	14	TANGMERE	4.3%	23.51	8	31.0
9	6	UNICRON JEWELLERY	4.0%	24.74	7	57.0
10	11	HEAVENLY THOUGHT	3.4%	29.58	9	54.0
11	13	ULTIMATE GLORY	2.5%	39.66	6	34.0
12	12	JOLLY CONVERGENCE	2.0%	51.23	13	175.0
13	2	CHUNG WAH SPIRIT	1.1%	93.11	12	199.0
14	3	PARTY TOGETHER	0.6%	173.33	11	285.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 35

PLACE

1 36

5 14

7 29.5

QUINELLA

5,7 164.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 72.5

1,7 158

5,7 61.5

TIERCE

5,7,1 2,690

TRIO

1,5,7 529

FIRST 4

1,5,7,10 813

QUARTET

5,7,1,10 17,397

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 19.5

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,8/1,5,7 274,101

9TH DOUBLE

1/5 759

1/7 307

SIX UP

6/4/3/10/1/5 5,249,475

6,11/1,4/3,6/2,10/1,8/5,7 8,058

3 [C Y Ho] —

TREBLE

10/1/5 16,126

10/1/7 4,454

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