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Sha Tin · 2019-09-01

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CORDYCEPS Closed strongly B 1.21.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 3.5 1
2 0 WORLD FAMOUS Closed strongly CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 9.3 1
3 0 REGENCY BO BO Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 10 11.0 2
4 0 BEAUTY DAY Led early B/H M L Yeung · T P Yung 7 6.9 2-1/4
5 0 MONGOLIAN LEGEND Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui 2 4.5 2-1/2
6 0 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V H W Lai · K L Man 1 34.0 3-3/4
7 0 UNICRON JEWELLERY Closed strongly B B Shinn · J Size 5 57.0 4-1/2
8 0 TANGMERE Closed strongly V/XB M Chadwick · C Fownes 4 31.0 4-1/2
9 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT H K H Chan · F C Lor 13 54.0 4-3/4
10 0 BEAUTY ENERGY B/TT K Teetan · J Moore 8 6.3 5
11 0 PARTY TOGETHER H/SR N Callan · L Ho 11 285.0 5-1/2
12 0 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT Closed strongly P-/TT T H So · C H Yip 9 199.0 7-1/4
13 0 JOLLY CONVERGENCE Closed strongly CP L Hewitson · R Gibson 12 175.0 9
14 0 PRIVATE ROCKET CP-/B1 C Schofield · D J Whyte 14 9.9 9-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with WORLD FAMOUS second and REGENCY BO BO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS—2. WORLD FAMOUS+1L3. REGENCY BO BO+2L4. BEAUTY DAY+2.25L5. MONGOLIAN LEGEND+2.5L6. ULTIMATE GLORY+3.75L7. UNICRON JEWELLERY+4.5L8. TANGMERE+4.5L9. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+4.75L10. BEAUTY ENERGY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MONGOLIAN LEGEND (28.2%) finished 5th — the winner CORDYCEPS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MONGOLIAN LEGEND 28.2% 3.55 5
2 0 CORDYCEPS 16.2% 6.18 1
3 0 BEAUTY ENERGY 13.1% 7.62 10
4 0 BEAUTY DAY 7.1% 14.00 4
5 0 WORLD FAMOUS 6.9% 14.45 2
6 0 PRIVATE ROCKET 5.6% 17.79 14
7 0 REGENCY BO BO 5.0% 19.82 3
8 0 TANGMERE 4.3% 23.51 8
9 0 UNICRON JEWELLERY 4.0% 24.74 7
10 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 3.4% 29.58 9
11 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 2.5% 39.66 6
12 0 JOLLY CONVERGENCE 2.0% 51.23 13
13 0 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 1.1% 93.11 12
14 0 PARTY TOGETHER 0.6% 173.33 11
MONGOLIAN LEGENDCORDYCEPS — wonBEAUTY ENERGYBEAUTY DAYWORLD FAMOUSPRIVATE ROCKETREGENCY BO BOTANGMEREUNICRON JEWELLERYHEAVENLY THOUGHTULTIMATE GLORYJOLLY CONVERGENCECHUNG WAH SPIRITPARTY TOGETHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 35

PLACE

1 36

5 14

7 29.5

QUINELLA

5,7 164.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 72.5

1,7 158

5,7 61.5

TIERCE

5,7,1 2,690

TRIO

1,5,7 529

FIRST 4

1,5,7,10 813

QUARTET

5,7,1,10 17,397

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 19.5

A2 —

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,8/1,5,7 274,101

9TH DOUBLE

1/5 759

1/7 307

SIX UP

6/4/3/10/1/5 5,249,475

6,11/1,4/3,6/2,10/1,8/5,7 8,058

3 [C Y Ho] —

TREBLE

10/1/5 16,126

10/1/7 4,454