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Sha Tin · 2019-09-01

Race 3

Class 1 GOOD 1200m Course B 7 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-01 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. REGENCY LEGEND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with SEASONS BLOOM second and JOLLY BANNER third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 REGENCY LEGEND TT 1.08.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 5 1.6 1-1/2
2 2 SEASONS BLOOM TT B Shinn · C S Shum 1 8.1 1-1/2
3 6 JOLLY BANNER B2 M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 50.0 2-1/2
4 7 STYLING CITY B J Moreira · J Moore 2 3.9 4
5 1 WISHFUL THINKER B K Teetan · R Gibson 4 8.8 5
6 3 WINNER'S WAY CP2/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz 3 35.0 6
7 4 CALIFORNIA FORTUNE B/TT A Sanna · D J Whyte 6 28.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY LEGEND2. SEASONS BLOOM+1.5L3. JOLLY BANNER+2.5L4. STYLING CITY+4L5. WISHFUL THINKER+5L6. WINNER'S WAY+6L7. CALIFORNIA FORTUNE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick REGENCY LEGEND (36.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 REGENCY LEGEND 36.0% 2.78 1
2 7 STYLING CITY 35.1% 2.85 4
3 1 WISHFUL THINKER 9.9% 10.08 5
4 2 SEASONS BLOOM 6.0% 16.61 2
5 4 CALIFORNIA FORTUNE 4.9% 20.28 7
6 6 JOLLY BANNER 4.5% 22.37 3
7 3 WINNER'S WAY 3.6% 28.05 6
REGENCY LEGEND — wonSTYLING CITYWISHFUL THINKERSEASONS BLOOMCALIFORNIA FORTUNEJOLLY BANNERWINNER'S WAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 16

PLACE

2 16.5

5 10.1

6 66

QUINELLA

2,5 42

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 20.5

2,6 264.5

5,6 102

TIERCE

5,2,6 969

TRIO

2,5,6 365

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 143

QUARTET

5,2,6,7 2,032

2ND DOUBLE

13/2 88

13/5 135

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A3

A2