Sha Tin · 2019-09-01
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUNSHINE WARRIOR, ridden by A Domeyer and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with CASIMIRO second and VIVA COUNCIL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite MR MAGELLAN finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 1.22.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 6 | 5.6 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | CASIMIRO J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 8 | 7.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | VIVA COUNCIL Led early V-/H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | PEARL CHAMPION Closed strongly B B Shinn · A T Millard | B Shinn | A T Millard | 2 | 5.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | VOYAGE KING V/TT G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 3 | 7.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | MR MAGELLAN Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 14 | 4.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | DASHING DART Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 79.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 7 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | ROYAL RACER H/P C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 11 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | CHIU CHOW KID TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 1 | 16.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE B/H K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 5 | 46.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | ROMAN ODYSSEY TT T H So · K L Man | T H So | K L Man | 12 | 127.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | GORGEOUS AGAIN B/H/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 4 | 95.0 | 13-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PEARL CHAMPION | 12.6% | 7.93 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | VOYAGE KING | 10.8% | 9.30 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | SUNSHINE WARRIOR | 9.4% | 10.62 | 1 |
| 4 | 13 | MR MAGELLAN | 8.7% | 11.45 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | CHIU CHOW KID | 8.0% | 12.46 | 11 |
| 6 | 4 | ROYAL RACER | 8.0% | 12.54 | 10 |
| 7 | 9 | GORGEOUS AGAIN | 7.9% | 12.69 | 14 |
| 8 | 10 | BULLISH GLORY | 7.5% | 13.36 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 6.1% | 16.52 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE | 5.3% | 18.72 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | CASIMIRO | 4.4% | 22.94 | 2 |
| 12 | 3 | VIVA COUNCIL | 4.2% | 23.99 | 3 |
| 13 | 8 | DASHING DART | 4.2% | 24.02 | 8 |
| 14 | 14 | ROMAN ODYSSEY | 3.0% | 33.04 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 56.5
PLACE
3 48.5
6 23.5
11 24.5
QUINELLA
6,11 271
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 200.5
3,11 268
6,11 103.5
TIERCE
6,11,3 7,875
TRIO
3,6,11 1,746
FIRST 4
2,3,6,11 2,017
QUARTET
6,11,3,2 40,492
3 PICK 1
A1 29
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
3/6 695
3/11 303.5