Sha Tin · 2019-10-06
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CURLING LUXURY, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with MONEY MARSHAL second and SKY GEM third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite REGENCY GEM finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CURLING LUXURY Wire to wire 1.48.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 6 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | MONEY MARSHAL Closed strongly H-/B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | SKY GEM J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 9 | 4.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | PROUD SKY Closed strongly V K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 3 | 6.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | REGENCY GEM B-/PC1/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 2 | 2.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 8 | 31.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | WICKER B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 4 | 8.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | FULL OF CHANCES V-/CP2 B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 7 | 9.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY H/TT- M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 10 | 16.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | WINNING CIRCLE PC-/B2/TT T H So · C W Chang | T H So | C W Chang | 5 | 94.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | REGENCY GEM | 29.5% | 3.40 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | SKY GEM | 29.1% | 3.44 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | PROUD SKY | 16.3% | 6.14 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | MONEY MARSHAL | 7.7% | 12.94 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | WICKER | 6.8% | 14.61 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | CURLING LUXURY | 3.4% | 29.49 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY | 2.6% | 38.17 | 9 |
| 8 | 1 | FULL OF CHANCES | 2.0% | 48.95 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | YOUNG GLORY | 1.4% | 69.38 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | WINNING CIRCLE | 1.1% | 90.27 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 227.5
PLACE
2 48
4 17.5
7 51
QUINELLA
2,7 1,778
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 118.5
2,7 396.5
4,7 119
TIERCE
2,7,4 20,427
TRIO
2,4,7 2,172
FIRST 4
2,4,6,7 2,454
QUARTET
2,7,4,6 99,832
3 PICK 1
A3 38.5
A2 —
A1 —