Sha Tin · 2019-10-06
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CROWN AVENUE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with BLASTOISE second and BULLISH GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V 1.47.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 5 | 2.2 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | BLASTOISE K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 1 | 9.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 7 | 32.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | GARLIC YEAH Closed strongly H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 3 | 49.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | INDIGENOUS STAR Closed strongly M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 9 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | SUNNY POWER Led early V U Rispoli · K W Lui | U Rispoli | K W Lui | 8 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | NEW ELEGANCE XB B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 2 | 9.5 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | GORGEOUS AGAIN B/H/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 6 | 8.3 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CROWN AVENUE | 23.7% | 4.23 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | GORGEOUS AGAIN | 19.4% | 5.16 | 9 |
| 3 | 7 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 17.9% | 5.58 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | BLASTOISE | 12.2% | 8.22 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | BULLISH GLORY | 9.7% | 10.28 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | NEW ELEGANCE | 6.9% | 14.57 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | SUNNY POWER | 6.6% | 15.06 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | AMAZING AGILITY | 2.0% | 49.59 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | GARLIC YEAH | 1.6% | 61.05 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 22.5
PLACE
2 12
4 17
9 23.5
QUINELLA
2,4 63.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 31.5
2,9 41
4,9 62.5
TIERCE
2,4,9 563
TRIO
2,4,9 167
FIRST 4
2,4,6,9 893
QUARTET
2,4,9,6 7,683
1ST DOUBLE
2/2 651
2/4 261.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A2 —
A3 —