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Sha Tin · 2019-10-06

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CROWN AVENUE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with BLASTOISE second and BULLISH GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.47.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V 1.47.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip 5 2.2 1/2
2 4 BLASTOISE K Teetan · D E Ferraris 4 4.3 1/2
3 9 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H M F Poon · C W Chang 1 9.7 1-3/4
4 6 AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT H W Lai · L Ho 7 32.0 2-3/4
5 8 GARLIC YEAH Closed strongly H T Mo · C H Yip 3 49.0 3-1/4
6 7 INDIGENOUS STAR Closed strongly M Chadwick · P F Yiu 9 12.0 5
7 3 SUNNY POWER Led early V U Rispoli · K W Lui 8 13.0 5-1/4
8 1 NEW ELEGANCE XB B Shinn · F C Lor 2 9.5 5-3/4
9 5 GORGEOUS AGAIN B/H/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 6 8.3 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CROWN AVENUE2. BLASTOISE+0.5L3. BULLISH GLORY+1.75L4. AMAZING AGILITY+2.75L5. GARLIC YEAH+3.25L6. INDIGENOUS STAR+5L7. SUNNY POWER+5.25L8. NEW ELEGANCE+5.75L9. GORGEOUS AGAIN+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CROWN AVENUE (23.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CROWN AVENUE 23.7% 4.23 1
2 5 GORGEOUS AGAIN 19.4% 5.16 9
3 7 INDIGENOUS STAR 17.9% 5.58 6
4 4 BLASTOISE 12.2% 8.22 2
5 9 BULLISH GLORY 9.7% 10.28 3
6 1 NEW ELEGANCE 6.9% 14.57 8
7 3 SUNNY POWER 6.6% 15.06 7
8 6 AMAZING AGILITY 2.0% 49.59 4
9 8 GARLIC YEAH 1.6% 61.05 5
CROWN AVENUE — wonGORGEOUS AGAININDIGENOUS STARBLASTOISEBULLISH GLORYNEW ELEGANCESUNNY POWERAMAZING AGILITYGARLIC YEAH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 22.5

PLACE

2 12

4 17

9 23.5

QUINELLA

2,4 63.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 31.5

2,9 41

4,9 62.5

TIERCE

2,4,9 563

TRIO

2,4,9 167

FIRST 4

2,4,6,9 893

QUARTET

2,4,9,6 7,683

1ST DOUBLE

2/2 651

2/4 261.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A2

A3