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Sha Tin · 2019-10-06

Race 7

Class 3 WET SLOW 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RICKFIELD Closed strongly XB 1.39.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A T Millard 13 176.0 N
2 0 WARM THE VOICE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui 14 53.0 N
3 0 DEAL MAKER H C Schofield · K H Ting 8 2.9 2-3/4
4 0 BEAR SLAM Closed strongly N Callan · D E Ferraris 4 3.0 3-3/4
5 0 HUANGSHAN Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT1 A Domeyer · J Moore 12 183.0 5-1/4
6 0 PACKING WARRIOR B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 12.0 5-1/2
7 0 RULETHEROOST Closed strongly CP A Sanna · F C Lor 10 26.0 6-3/4
8 0 HO HO FEEL Closed strongly H/XB T H So · C H Yip 9 192.0 8
9 0 WILLIE WAY Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 6 13.0 11-1/4
10 0 ULTIMATE GLORY V H W Lai · K L Man 2 65.0 11-3/4
11 0 TANG FLEMING Led early B/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 11 69.0 15-1/2
12 0 CLEAR CHOICE B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 3 5.3 16-1/4
13 0 UNICORNBABY B L Hewitson · R Gibson 1 65.0 17
14 0 PERFECT TO PLAY H/TT Z Purton · C Fownes 5 12.0 23-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. RICKFIELD, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with WARM THE VOICE second and DEAL MAKER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite DEAL MAKER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RICKFIELD—2. WARM THE VOICE+0.05L3. DEAL MAKER+2.75L4. BEAR SLAM+3.75L5. HUANGSHAN+5.25L6. PACKING WARRIOR+5.5L7. RULETHEROOST+6.75L8. HO HO FEEL+8L9. WILLIE WAY+11.25L10. ULTIMATE GLORY+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DEAL MAKER (26.5%) finished 3rd — the winner RICKFIELD was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DEAL MAKER 26.5% 3.78 3
2 0 CLEAR CHOICE 16.7% 6.00 12
3 0 PERFECT TO PLAY 13.1% 7.66 14
4 0 PACKING WARRIOR 11.9% 8.43 6
5 0 BEAR SLAM 9.7% 10.32 4
6 0 WARM THE VOICE 3.6% 27.69 2
7 0 WILLIE WAY 3.2% 31.40 9
8 0 UNICORNBABY 3.1% 31.98 13
9 0 RULETHEROOST 3.0% 33.87 7
10 0 RICKFIELD 2.7% 36.79 1
11 0 TANG FLEMING 2.3% 43.97 11
12 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 1.6% 60.89 10
13 0 HUANGSHAN 1.5% 65.52 5
14 0 HO HO FEEL 1.2% 82.63 8
DEAL MAKERCLEAR CHOICEPERFECT TO PLAYPACKING WARRIORBEAR SLAMWARM THE VOICEWILLIE WAYUNICORNBABYRULETHEROOSTRICKFIELD — wonTANG FLEMINGULTIMATE GLORYHUANGSHANHO HO FEEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 1,763

PLACE

3 117.5

5 327

11 15

QUINELLA

3,5 13,723

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 3,109

3,11 333

5,11 702.5

TIERCE

5,3,11 132,663

TRIO

3,5,11 16,501

FIRST 4

3,4,5,11 13,966

QUARTET

5,3,11,4 779,657

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,11,12/3,5,11 509,654

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 52

A1 —

A2 —

6TH DOUBLE

12/3 886

12/5 12,691.5