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Sha Tin · 2019-10-06

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. UNCLE STEVE, ridden by A Sanna and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with HEZTHEWONFORUS second and LUCKY HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite HEZTHEWONFORUS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly H-/CP1 1.21.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Sanna · D J Whyte 7 7.6 3/4
2 3 HEZTHEWONFORUS Closed strongly SR J Moreira · J Size 1 3.2 3/4
3 7 LUCKY HERO Closed strongly B/TT A Domeyer · C S Shum 4 8.5 2-1/2
4 2 FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly H Z Purton · D J Hall 12 6.0 3
5 10 KING OF HEARTS Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 15.0 4-1/2
6 5 GOLD CHEST TT K C Leung · R Gibson 8 11.0 5
7 9 HELLO BEAUTY Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · J Moore 5 20.0 5-1/4
8 11 MONGOLIAN KING Closed strongly H W Lai · Y S Tsui 14 39.0 6-1/2
9 8 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly M L Yeung · K W Lui 6 41.0 6-1/2
10 13 KASI FARASI H/TT T H So · K H Ting 2 42.0 7-1/4
11 6 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 3 9.4 7-3/4
12 1 MORETHANLUCKY Led early B B Shinn · F C Lor 9 28.0 8
13 12 HANDSOME BO BO CP M F Poon · K L Man 10 25.0 9-1/4
14 4 JOYFUL TRINITY U Rispoli · C Fownes 13 37.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNCLE STEVE—2. HEZTHEWONFORUS+0.75L3. LUCKY HERO+2.5L4. FAST MOST FURIOUS+3L5. KING OF HEARTS+4.5L6. GOLD CHEST+5L7. HELLO BEAUTY+5.25L8. MONGOLIAN KING+6.5L9. NOBLE STEED+6.5L10. KASI FARASI+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HEZTHEWONFORUS (27.9%) finished 2nd — the winner UNCLE STEVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 HEZTHEWONFORUS 27.9% 3.58 2
2 14 UNCLE STEVE 13.3% 7.52 1
3 10 KING OF HEARTS 9.0% 11.07 5
4 6 BEAUTY SPIRIT 7.8% 12.90 11
5 7 LUCKY HERO 7.0% 14.37 3
6 2 FAST MOST FURIOUS 6.5% 15.43 4
7 9 HELLO BEAUTY 5.7% 17.44 7
8 4 JOYFUL TRINITY 4.5% 22.07 14
9 1 MORETHANLUCKY 3.9% 25.37 12
10 5 GOLD CHEST 3.8% 26.39 6
11 12 HANDSOME BO BO 3.3% 30.14 13
12 8 NOBLE STEED 3.0% 33.14 9
13 11 MONGOLIAN KING 2.3% 44.38 8
14 13 KASI FARASI 2.0% 51.05 10
HEZTHEWONFORUSUNCLE STEVE — wonKING OF HEARTSBEAUTY SPIRITLUCKY HEROFAST MOST FURIOUSHELLO BEAUTYJOYFUL TRINITYMORETHANLUCKYGOLD CHESTHANDSOME BO BONOBLE STEEDMONGOLIAN KINGKASI FARASI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 76.5

PLACE

3 15.5

7 26.5

14 26

QUINELLA

3,14 141

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 68

3,14 52

7,14 122.5

TIERCE

14,3,7 2,184

TRIO

3,7,14 433

FIRST 4

2,3,7,14 410

QUARTET

14,3,7,2 9,794

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 33.5

A1 —

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,11,13/3,7,14 3,686

9TH DOUBLE

13/3 20

13/14 155

SIX UP

8,9/5,12/3,5/3,4/11,13/3,14 20,265

8/12/5/4/13/14 2,233,439

2 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

4/13/3 45

4/13/14 490

← Race 9 This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99