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Sha Tin · 2019-10-06

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLORADO HIGH, ridden by J Moreira and trained by R Gibson, won by 1-1/2, with MAJESTIC CONQUEROR second and EPTIWINS third. The 2.5 favourite FRESH POWER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 COLORADO HIGH 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · R Gibson 3 3.3 1-1/2
2 7 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 8.6 1-1/2
3 3 EPTIWINS H1/XB1 B Shinn · L Ho 11 11.0 2
4 4 FRESH POWER TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 1 2.5 2-3/4
5 1 SPLENDID TIMING B A Sanna · C W Chang 5 16.0 3-1/4
6 14 FARM BUMPER K C Leung · K L Man 9 29.0 4-1/2
7 11 DR LUCKY STAR T H So · D J Hall 2 85.0 7-1/4
8 5 IRON BOY B/XB R Bayliss · D J Whyte 12 20.0 7-1/2
9 10 GALAXY RACER H N Wong · K H Ting 4 295.0 7-3/4
10 2 BINGO B/TT M F Poon · J Moore 13 14.0 9
11 8 PARTY EVERYDAY CP1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 31.0 10-3/4
12 12 IRON KING H T Mo · C H Yip 8 27.0 11-3/4
13 13 PLANET NICCONI TT H W Lai · W Y So 6 331.0 22-1/2
14 6 LUCKY WORLD TT1 L Hewitson · C S Shum 14 132.0 26-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COLORADO HIGH2. MAJESTIC CONQUEROR+1.5L3. EPTIWINS+2L4. FRESH POWER+2.75L5. SPLENDID TIMING+3.25L6. FARM BUMPER+4.5L7. DR LUCKY STAR+7.25L8. IRON BOY+7.5L9. GALAXY RACER+7.75L10. BINGO+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick COLORADO HIGH (24.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 COLORADO HIGH 24.0% 4.17 1
2 4 FRESH POWER 23.1% 4.33 4
3 2 BINGO 9.6% 10.46 10
4 7 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR 9.2% 10.81 2
5 1 SPLENDID TIMING 6.5% 15.31 5
6 3 EPTIWINS 5.3% 19.01 3
7 6 LUCKY WORLD 5.1% 19.51 14
8 14 FARM BUMPER 4.5% 22.01 6
9 5 IRON BOY 4.2% 23.54 8
10 12 IRON KING 3.8% 26.60 12
11 8 PARTY EVERYDAY 2.3% 42.74 11
12 13 PLANET NICCONI 0.9% 110.61 13
13 10 GALAXY RACER 0.8% 124.65 9
14 11 DR LUCKY STAR 0.6% 162.66 7
COLORADO HIGH — wonFRESH POWERBINGOMAJESTIC CONQUERORSPLENDID TIMINGEPTIWINSLUCKY WORLDFARM BUMPERIRON BOYIRON KINGPARTY EVERYDAYPLANET NICCONIGALAXY RACERDR LUCKY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 33

PLACE

3 27

7 26

9 14.5

QUINELLA

7,9 138.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 124.5

3,9 78.5

7,9 51

TIERCE

9,7,3 1,644

TRIO

3,7,9 390

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 167

QUARTET

9,7,3,4 4,452

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

8,10,14/3,7,9 17,492

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 14.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE

8/7 60.5

8/9 174