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Sha Tin · 2019-10-06

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. BAND OF BROTHERS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with WAR ROOM second and GOOD BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BAND OF BROTHERS Closed strongly 1.21.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 3 2.5 N
2 3 WAR ROOM Closed strongly B Shinn · K H Ting 4 7.5 N
3 7 GOOD BEAUTY Closed strongly CP/TT A Domeyer · J Moore 1 12.0 1-3/4
4 6 COBY BOY Closed strongly B M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 29.0 1-3/4
5 14 BELLAGIO Closed strongly B R Bayliss · P F Yiu 13 8.8 2-1/4
6 10 BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly TT A Sanna · C W Chang 8 99.0 3
7 9 WORLD FAMOUS CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 11.0 3
8 1 FOLLOW ME Closed strongly TT J Moreira · J Size 2 4.4 3
9 11 MONSTER KAKA Closed strongly H/PC1/TT- M F Poon · D J Hall 12 55.0 3-1/4
10 13 DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly L Hewitson · C H Yip 9 163.0 4-1/2
11 5 SOLAR WAI WAI Led early U Rispoli · F C Lor 10 12.0 4-1/2
12 12 SURREALISM H C Schofield · D E Ferraris 14 129.0 6
13 2 GIANT TURTLE SR/TT H T Mo · A T Millard 6 89.0 9-3/4
14 8 MAGNIFICENT T H So · L Ho 11 98.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BAND OF BROTHERS2. WAR ROOM+0.05L3. GOOD BEAUTY+1.75L4. COBY BOY+1.75L5. BELLAGIO+2.25L6. BIG BANG BONG+3L7. WORLD FAMOUS+3L8. FOLLOW ME+3L9. MONSTER KAKA+3.25L10. DECISIVE ACTION+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BAND OF BROTHERS (49.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BAND OF BROTHERS 49.3% 2.03 1
2 1 FOLLOW ME 14.6% 6.86 8
3 7 GOOD BEAUTY 7.5% 13.40 3
4 9 WORLD FAMOUS 6.5% 15.30 7
5 5 SOLAR WAI WAI 5.0% 20.00 11
6 14 BELLAGIO 4.6% 21.68 5
7 3 WAR ROOM 3.1% 32.55 2
8 6 COBY BOY 2.8% 35.16 4
9 11 MONSTER KAKA 1.8% 57.11 9
10 2 GIANT TURTLE 1.7% 59.26 13
11 13 DECISIVE ACTION 1.1% 93.03 10
12 10 BIG BANG BONG 1.1% 94.53 6
13 8 MAGNIFICENT 0.7% 150.14 14
14 12 SURREALISM 0.3% 295.20 12
BAND OF BROTHERS — wonFOLLOW MEGOOD BEAUTYWORLD FAMOUSSOLAR WAI WAIBELLAGIOWAR ROOMCOBY BOYMONSTER KAKAGIANT TURTLEDECISIVE ACTIONBIG BANG BONGMAGNIFICENTSURREALISM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 25

PLACE

3 23

4 13.5

7 33

QUINELLA

3,4 100

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 40.5

3,7 148.5

4,7 63.5

TIERCE

4,3,7 1,149

TRIO

3,4,7 314

FIRST 4

3,4,6,7 1,539

QUARTET

4,3,7,6 13,660

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16

A2

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

5/3 1,469

5/4 3,456.5