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Sha Tin · 2019-10-06

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-06 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. CHICKEN DANCE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/4, with CALIFORNIA GUNGHO second and LONE EAGLE third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 CHICKEN DANCE 1.09.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 4 3.2 1-1/4
2 11 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 2 3.4 1-1/4
3 4 LONE EAGLE XB2 B Shinn · P F Yiu 3 4.6 1-1/4
4 12 LAKESHORE EAGLE K C Leung · W Y So 5 9.3 1-3/4
5 6 PRIVATE ROCKET B/XB1 A Sanna · D J Whyte 1 24.0 2
6 14 WINSTON'S LAD H H W Lai · K W Lui 14 56.0 3
7 5 ENDEARING B/TT N Callan · J Moore 9 24.0 3
8 2 SOLOMON'S BAY CP/XB Z Purton · F C Lor 6 10.0 3-1/2
9 1 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING H C Schofield · K H Ting 10 57.0 3-3/4
10 9 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V T H So · L Ho 8 129.0 4-1/2
11 8 TOP MILITARY M L Yeung · T P Yung 13 177.0 5-1/2
12 7 HONEST WAY U Rispoli · D E Ferraris 7 24.0 6
13 10 SALTO OLIMPICO B M F Poon · D J Hall 12 85.0 7-1/2
14 3 HERCULES L Hewitson · C H Yip 11 207.0 7-3/4
0 POWERMAX · R Gibson

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHICKEN DANCE2. CALIFORNIA GUNGHO+1.25L3. LONE EAGLE+1.25L4. LAKESHORE EAGLE+1.75L5. PRIVATE ROCKET+2L6. WINSTON'S LAD+3L7. ENDEARING+3L8. SOLOMON'S BAY+3.5L9. CANTSTOPTHEFEELING+3.75L10. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA GUNGHO (33.3%) finished 2nd — the winner CHICKEN DANCE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO 33.3% 3.00 2
2 13 CHICKEN DANCE 24.5% 4.09 1
3 12 LAKESHORE EAGLE 11.1% 9.03 4
4 2 SOLOMON'S BAY 7.6% 13.23 8
5 4 LONE EAGLE 5.7% 17.60 3
6 5 ENDEARING 4.1% 24.56 7
7 10 SALTO OLIMPICO 2.8% 35.71 13
8 6 PRIVATE ROCKET 2.3% 42.99 5
9 7 HONEST WAY 2.3% 43.44 12
10 1 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 2.1% 48.11 9
11 3 HERCULES 1.3% 77.99 14
12 9 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 1.2% 85.15 10
13 8 TOP MILITARY 1.0% 101.00 11
14 14 WINSTON'S LAD 0.9% 111.77 6
CALIFORNIA GUNGHOCHICKEN DANCE — wonLAKESHORE EAGLESOLOMON'S BAYLONE EAGLEENDEARINGSALTO OLIMPICOPRIVATE ROCKETHONEST WAYCANTSTOPTHEFEELINGHERCULESSUMSTREETSUMWHERETOP MILITARYWINSTON'S LAD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 32

PLACE

4 15.5

11 12.5

13 15.5

QUINELLA

11,13 62

QUINELLA PLACE

4,11 32

4,13 38

11,13 28

TIERCE

13,11,4 391

TRIO

4,11,13 84

FIRST 4

4,11,12,13 133

QUARTET

13,11,4,12 1,763

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 19

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

4/11 12

4/13 54.5