Happy Valley · 2019-10-16
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ASSOCIATION FANS Closed strongly H/SR 1.50.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 5 | 9.3 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY Closed strongly H/TT2 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 11 | 21.0 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | GOLDEN KID Closed strongly V A Sanna · K W Lui | A Sanna | K W Lui | 4 | 5.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | SKY GEM Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 2.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | DRAGON WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 9 | 17.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 1 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | MEGATRON Led early B/TT K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 10 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | KEEP GOING B-/H1/P2 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 6 | 52.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | MONEY MARSHAL B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 8.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | COME ON WONGCHOY C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 7 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | OUR GREEN B2 B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 8 | 36.0 | 6-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-16 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ASSOCIATION FANS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by SH, with ROMANTIC JOURNEY second and GOLDEN KID third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SKY GEM finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SKY GEM | 34.6% | 2.89 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | MONEY MARSHAL | 20.4% | 4.89 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | DRAGON WARRIOR | 6.5% | 15.43 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | GOLDEN KID | 6.4% | 15.58 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | COME ON WONGCHOY | 6.2% | 16.04 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | KEEP GOING | 5.2% | 19.33 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | YOUNG GLORY | 5.1% | 19.58 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | MEGATRON | 4.9% | 20.24 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | ASSOCIATION FANS | 4.6% | 21.97 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | OUR GREEN | 3.4% | 29.24 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY | 2.6% | 38.09 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 93
PLACE
3 17.5
5 32.5
11 44
QUINELLA
5,11 809.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 89.5
3,11 154
5,11 262
TIERCE
5,11,3 10,447
TRIO
3,5,11 1,636
FIRST 4
2,3,5,11 895
QUARTET
5,11,3,2 33,840
3 PICK 1
A2 27
A1 —
A3 —